Grammy Nominees Prediction

Yikes. This caught me off guard, and I don't have time to go through all the categories thoroughly, although I did go through all of them when the eligibility lists were made available in October. Here's my predictions:

Album of the Year

Arcade Fire - The Suburbs
Eminem - Recovery
Carole King and James Taylor - Live at the Troubadour
Lady Antebellum - Need You Now
Sade - Soldier of Love

Last year, I did a big analysis of how to predict album of the year. The key is to identify the biggest album in the most popular music genres. With that, I have King and Taylor for pop, Sade for R&B, Lady Antebellum for country, Eminem for rap, and Arcade Fire for alternative. I feel pretty good about this, but a slight unease that there's no "rock" category pick. But what would that be? Pearl Jam? Muse? Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers? Other possibilities: Lady Gaga gets the pop spot instead, Miranda Lambert gets the country spot, and Janelle Monae sneaks in somehow.

Record of the Year

Michael Buble - Haven't Met You Yet
Eminem feat. Rihanna - Love the Way You Lie
Jay-Z feat. Alicia Keys - Empire State of Mind
Lady Antebellum - Need You Now
Lady Gaga - Bad Romance

Two ladies lead the pack this year--Antebellum and Gaga. Both are shoo-ins. Then two rap/sung combinations, which is gutsy, but I can't imagine one without the other being nominated. The last slot is tricky. I'm going out a limb to say it will be Michael Buble, since Grammy usually has something a little more adult oriented in the lineup. But that means that summer's biggest hit, Katy Perry's "California Gurls," doesn't get a nod, and I still wouldn't count out King and Taylor's "You've Got a Friend" or Bruno Mars' "Just the Way You Are." Some say Florence & the Machine has a shot with "Dog Days Are Over," but I really doubt it.

Best New Artist

Justin Bieber
Drake
Florence & the Machine
Vampire Weekend
The XX

Yes, Vampire Weekend was eligible, despite having had a hit album in 2008. I put Drake as the most likely adult male, but B.o.B., Taio Cruz or Jason Derulo could have a shot too. Don't look for Bruno Mars, Nicki Minaj or Janelle Monae, as they were not submitted.

Rock Album

Gaslight Anthem - American Slang
Linkin Park - A Thousand Suns
Muse - The Resistance
Pearl Jam - Backspacer
Tom Petty & the Heartbreakers - Mojo

This is what I'd like to see, and it ignores some of the "legends" that could get in, like Lynard Skynard and Neil Young.

Alternative Album

Arcade Fire - The Suburbs
The Black Keys - Brothers
LCD Soundsystem - This Is Happening
The National - High Violet
Vampire Weekend - Contra

Arcade Fire and Vampire Weekend are the frontrunners. If The National doesn't get a nod here, I'll be really irritated. Would love to see Broken Bells make the cut.

Pop Vocal Album

Jack Johnson - To the Sea
Carole King and James Taylor - Live at the Troubadour
Lady Gaga - Fame Monster
Corinne Bailey Rae - The Sea
Rihanna - Rated R

Pop Female

Ke$ha - Tik Tok
Carole King - So Far Away
Lady Gaga - Bad Romance
Katy Perry - Teenage Dream
Pink - Glitter in the Air
(If they go 6, add Rihanna - Rude Boy)

Pop Male

Michael Buble - Haven't Met You Yet
Taio Cruz - Dynamite
Bruno Mars - Just the Way You Are
John Mayer - Half of My Heart
James Taylor - Carolina in My Mind

Pop Duo/Group

Maroon 5 - Misery
La Roux - Bulletproof
OneRepublic - Secrets
Paramore - The Only Exception
Train - Hey, Soul Sister

Pop Collaboration

B.o.B., Hayley Williams and Eminem - Airplanes II
Carole King and James Taylor - You've Got a Friend
Lady Gaga and Beyonce - Telephone
Katy Perry and Snoop Dogg - California Gurls
Usher & Will.I.Am - OMG