I can't resist trying to predict the Oscar nominees. I guess I like to play oracle. Here are my thoughts for this year. Watch the nominees live tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. EST.
Picture
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
With 10 slots to fill, the pool of likely nominees feels really small this year. In fact, convention wisdom says there are 11 films for the 10 slots this year. The Social Network and The King's Speech are of course the frontrunners to win, and Black Swan, The Fighter, and Inception are shoo-ins to be nominated. In the old days, those would be the five nominees. Toy Story 3, True Grit, and The Kids Are All Right are looking pretty likely. That leaves 3 films vying for the last 2 slots. Given last year's outcome, I'm going with the more convention two, 127 Hours and The Town, leaving grim indie Winter's Bone off the list. Wouldn't it be fun if something from left field got nominated that no one expects, like Another Year or The Ghost Writer? It can happen. There are always surprises.
Spoiler: I'd love to see Blue Valentine snag a nomination. It's a difficult, but beautiful film, acted with such skill by Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams. Intimate, heartbreaking stuff.
Actor
Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours
They might as well just give it to Colin Firth now--we all know he is going to win. James Franco looks like a sure thing to be nominated, and Jeff Bridges and Jesse Eisenberg are likely. I had Robert Duvall (Get Low) on my list until today--I've finally succumbed to those who think Javier Bardem has the momentum to make the cut instead (I haven't seen either film). I think Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter) is going to be left out.
Spoiler: Again, I'd love to see some love for Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine. Perhaps instead of Jesse Eisenberg or Jeff Bridges.
Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech
Bale will probably win in this race that comes down to him and Rush. Mark Ruffalo sure better be nominated, and I think Jeremy Renner will be too, although there is slight chance for his co-star Pete Postlethwaite (The Town) to get a posthumous nomination. If that happens, or the more likely scenario of John Hawkes (Winter's Bone) being nominated, then Garfield might find himself off the list.
Spoiler: Justin Timberlake proved his acting chops in The Social Network, holding his own against Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield. Could it lead to his first Oscar nomination?
Actress
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine
The ladies are tough this year, which is why I grouped them together. While Annette Bening and Natalie Portman are sure to duke it out for the win, it gets murkier after that. The problem is that there are three potential performers, none of the frontrunners, who could possibly be nominated in either the lead or supporting category. Although they may be campaigning for one or the other, that doesn't matter to the Oscar voters, who choose which category a performance gets nominated in. Recall Kate Winslet a few years ago. Her studios pushed her for lead actress for Revolutionary Road and supporting actress in The Reader, presumably so that she could be nominated for both and avoid canceling herself out. Instead, voters nominated her performance in The Reader as a lead. The three performances this year are Hailee Steinfield (True Grit), who's being pushed in the supporting category for what is really a lead role; Lesley Manville (Another Year), who I've seen mentioned in both categories (I haven't seen the film); and Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), who is falling prey to sexism if people see her performance as a supporting one (if her character was a man, there would be no question it is a lead role). In the end, I think they could all lose out in the lead race, as voters go for performances for which there is no confusion: Kidman, Lawrence, and (hopefully) Williams.
Spoiler: Once again in a year where Annette Bening is getting major Oscar buzz, Hilary Swank (Conviction) could swoop in and spoil it all. For a real offbeat nomination, how about Noomi Rapace for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom
Adams, Leo, and Carter are the frontunners here, and I'm sure they will all be recognized. I think Steinfeld will end up here anyway (I know I said Oscar voters weren't fooled by Winslet, but they have been fooled in the past, like nominating The English Patient's Juliette Binoche in supporting, even though she had more screen time than "lead" Kristin Scott Thomas). Also, I haven't seen Animal Kingdom, but Jacki Weaver seems to have good buzz.
Spoiler: Would love to see a nod for Black Swan's Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey. Both were great.
Director
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter
This is the Directors' Guild lineup, which is a safe bet, but if there is a deviation from that, perhaps the Coen Brothers (True Grit) or Danny Boyle (127 Hours) could find a spot on the list.
Adapted Screenplay
Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone
Original Screenplay
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
Editing
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Cinematography
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit
Art Direction
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit
Costume Design
Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit
Makeup
Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman
Visual Effects
Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter 7.1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy
Sound Editing
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron Legacy
True Grit
Sound Mixing
Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit
Score
Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Song
"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me," Burlesque
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"I See the Light," Tangled
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
"Shine," Waiting for Superman
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3
Documentary Feature
Exit through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman
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