Oscar Nominees - Suprises and Snubs

It's the President's speech taking precedence this evening, but this morning was all about The King's Speech, snagging 12 Oscar nominations--the most of any film this year--including best picture. My predictions were pretty good this year. I was spot on for actor, actress, supporting actress, cinematography, and animated feature, and one away for picture. Here are my biggest surprises and snubs:

Surprise: A strong showing for 127 Hours. I thought this film would get 3 nominations, but it ended up with 6, including adapted screenplay, score and editing.

Snub: Black Swan received far fewer nominations than I thought it would--just 5, whereas I thought it would get 10. I found the film's artistry and sound to be quite important in creating the environment for telling this chilling story, so I expected it would get nods in categories like art direction and sound, but apparently it didn't catch the eye of the academy members. I wasn't even expecting a nod for Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey, although I would have loved to have been surprised by that.

Surprise: John Hawkes manages to get a support actor nod for Winter's Bone, as the first creepy but later redeeming uncle of the main character.

Snub: Thus Andrew Garfield was shut out of the supporting actor race, although The Social Network still managed to get eight nominations, which is pretty good for a non-period piece.

Surprise: Joel and Ethan Coen snag a nod for best director. In fact, True Grit was rather warmly embraced with the second-most nominations (10). It's young star, Hailee Steinfield also received a nod in the supporting actress category, answering the question about whether the academy would consider her a lead or supporting player.

Snub: Despite it receiving eight nods, Inception's director, Christopher Nolan, was shut out of the directors' race.

Snub/surprise: Waiting for Superman was the year's most popular documentary, so I'm very surprised it didn't receive a nomination for documentary feature. Even its song "Shine" was on the possible list for best song and didn't make the cut.

Oscar Nominee Predictions

I can't resist trying to predict the Oscar nominees. I guess I like to play oracle. Here are my thoughts for this year. Watch the nominees live tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

With 10 slots to fill, the pool of likely nominees feels really small this year. In fact, convention wisdom says there are 11 films for the 10 slots this year. The Social Network and The King's Speech are of course the frontrunners to win, and Black Swan, The Fighter, and Inception are shoo-ins to be nominated. In the old days, those would be the five nominees. Toy Story 3, True Grit, and The Kids Are All Right are looking pretty likely. That leaves 3 films vying for the last 2 slots. Given last year's outcome, I'm going with the more convention two, 127 Hours and The Town, leaving grim indie Winter's Bone off the list. Wouldn't it be fun if something from left field got nominated that no one expects, like Another Year or The Ghost Writer? It can happen. There are always surprises.

Spoiler: I'd love to see Blue Valentine snag a nomination. It's a difficult, but beautiful film, acted with such skill by Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams. Intimate, heartbreaking stuff.

Actor

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

They might as well just give it to Colin Firth now--we all know he is going to win. James Franco looks like a sure thing to be nominated, and Jeff Bridges and Jesse Eisenberg are likely. I had Robert Duvall (Get Low) on my list until today--I've finally succumbed to those who think Javier Bardem has the momentum to make the cut instead (I haven't seen either film). I think Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter) is going to be left out.

Spoiler: Again, I'd love to see some love for Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine. Perhaps instead of Jesse Eisenberg or Jeff Bridges.

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Bale will probably win in this race that comes down to him and Rush. Mark Ruffalo sure better be nominated, and I think Jeremy Renner will be too, although there is slight chance for his co-star Pete Postlethwaite (The Town) to get a posthumous nomination. If that happens, or the more likely scenario of John Hawkes (Winter's Bone) being nominated, then Garfield might find himself off the list.

Spoiler: Justin Timberlake proved his acting chops in The Social Network, holding his own against Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield. Could it lead to his first Oscar nomination?


Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

The ladies are tough this year, which is why I grouped them together. While Annette Bening and Natalie Portman are sure to duke it out for the win, it gets murkier after that. The problem is that there are three potential performers, none of the frontrunners, who could possibly be nominated in either the lead or supporting category. Although they may be campaigning for one or the other, that doesn't matter to the Oscar voters, who choose which category a performance gets nominated in. Recall Kate Winslet a few years ago. Her studios pushed her for lead actress for Revolutionary Road and supporting actress in The Reader, presumably so that she could be nominated for both and avoid canceling herself out. Instead, voters nominated her performance in The Reader as a lead. The three performances this year are Hailee Steinfield (True Grit), who's being pushed in the supporting category for what is really a lead role; Lesley Manville (Another Year), who I've seen mentioned in both categories (I haven't seen the film); and Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), who is falling prey to sexism if people see her performance as a supporting one (if her character was a man, there would be no question it is a lead role). In the end, I think they could all lose out in the lead race, as voters go for performances for which there is no confusion: Kidman, Lawrence, and (hopefully) Williams.

Spoiler: Once again in a year where Annette Bening is getting major Oscar buzz, Hilary Swank (Conviction) could swoop in and spoil it all. For a real offbeat nomination, how about Noomi Rapace for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?


Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Adams, Leo, and Carter are the frontunners here, and I'm sure they will all be recognized. I think Steinfeld will end up here anyway (I know I said Oscar voters weren't fooled by Winslet, but they have been fooled in the past, like nominating The English Patient's Juliette Binoche in supporting, even though she had more screen time than "lead" Kristin Scott Thomas). Also, I haven't seen Animal Kingdom, but Jacki Weaver seems to have good buzz.

Spoiler: Would love to see a nod for Black Swan's Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey. Both were great.

Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter

This is the Directors' Guild lineup, which is a safe bet, but if there is a deviation from that, perhaps the Coen Brothers (True Grit) or Danny Boyle (127 Hours) could find a spot on the list.

Adapted Screenplay

Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Original Screenplay

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Editing

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Makeup

Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman

Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter 7.1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy

Sound Editing

Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron Legacy
True Grit

Sound Mixing

Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

Score

Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Song

"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me," Burlesque
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"I See the Light," Tangled
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
"Shine," Waiting for Superman

Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Documentary Feature

Exit through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman

Booker Prize 2010

In a surprising upset, Howard Jacobson won the Booker Prize for The Finkler Question. I got further on the Booker shortlist this year than ever before, having cracked four of the six titles (I only made it through three though, as I found Peter Carey's book so dull I had to put it down after 100 pages).

Oddsmakers gave the advantage to Tom McCarthy's C, which was a strange, but enjoyable read. Also strange was Damon Galgut's In a Strange Room, which I enjoyed, even though the protagonist was annoying spineless. I was rooting for Emma Donogue's Room, my favorite book I've read so far this year. It's an amazing story told from the point of view of a 5-year-old boy whose lived his whole life trapped in a room with his mother, who was abducted 7 years prior by a creep who keeps her locked up and rapes her regularly. As dark and disturbing as such a premise could be--and it has its moments of breathtaking cruelty--the overall tone is actually one of youthful discovery, as the boy begins to fully grasp how small his world is and the larger world beyond.

Booker Prize Pop Music Trivia: Which book included a reference to a pop musician who had a UK #1 hit earlier this year? Which artist was it?