Oscar Nominees - Suprises and Snubs

It's the President's speech taking precedence this evening, but this morning was all about The King's Speech, snagging 12 Oscar nominations--the most of any film this year--including best picture. My predictions were pretty good this year. I was spot on for actor, actress, supporting actress, cinematography, and animated feature, and one away for picture. Here are my biggest surprises and snubs:

Surprise: A strong showing for 127 Hours. I thought this film would get 3 nominations, but it ended up with 6, including adapted screenplay, score and editing.

Snub: Black Swan received far fewer nominations than I thought it would--just 5, whereas I thought it would get 10. I found the film's artistry and sound to be quite important in creating the environment for telling this chilling story, so I expected it would get nods in categories like art direction and sound, but apparently it didn't catch the eye of the academy members. I wasn't even expecting a nod for Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey, although I would have loved to have been surprised by that.

Surprise: John Hawkes manages to get a support actor nod for Winter's Bone, as the first creepy but later redeeming uncle of the main character.

Snub: Thus Andrew Garfield was shut out of the supporting actor race, although The Social Network still managed to get eight nominations, which is pretty good for a non-period piece.

Surprise: Joel and Ethan Coen snag a nod for best director. In fact, True Grit was rather warmly embraced with the second-most nominations (10). It's young star, Hailee Steinfield also received a nod in the supporting actress category, answering the question about whether the academy would consider her a lead or supporting player.

Snub: Despite it receiving eight nods, Inception's director, Christopher Nolan, was shut out of the directors' race.

Snub/surprise: Waiting for Superman was the year's most popular documentary, so I'm very surprised it didn't receive a nomination for documentary feature. Even its song "Shine" was on the possible list for best song and didn't make the cut.

Oscar Nominee Predictions

I can't resist trying to predict the Oscar nominees. I guess I like to play oracle. Here are my thoughts for this year. Watch the nominees live tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. EST.

Picture

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit

With 10 slots to fill, the pool of likely nominees feels really small this year. In fact, convention wisdom says there are 11 films for the 10 slots this year. The Social Network and The King's Speech are of course the frontrunners to win, and Black Swan, The Fighter, and Inception are shoo-ins to be nominated. In the old days, those would be the five nominees. Toy Story 3, True Grit, and The Kids Are All Right are looking pretty likely. That leaves 3 films vying for the last 2 slots. Given last year's outcome, I'm going with the more convention two, 127 Hours and The Town, leaving grim indie Winter's Bone off the list. Wouldn't it be fun if something from left field got nominated that no one expects, like Another Year or The Ghost Writer? It can happen. There are always surprises.

Spoiler: I'd love to see Blue Valentine snag a nomination. It's a difficult, but beautiful film, acted with such skill by Ryan Gosling and Michelle Williams. Intimate, heartbreaking stuff.

Actor

Javier Bardem, Biutiful
Jeff Bridges, True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
Colin Firth, The King's Speech
James Franco, 127 Hours

They might as well just give it to Colin Firth now--we all know he is going to win. James Franco looks like a sure thing to be nominated, and Jeff Bridges and Jesse Eisenberg are likely. I had Robert Duvall (Get Low) on my list until today--I've finally succumbed to those who think Javier Bardem has the momentum to make the cut instead (I haven't seen either film). I think Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter) is going to be left out.

Spoiler: Again, I'd love to see some love for Ryan Gosling in Blue Valentine. Perhaps instead of Jesse Eisenberg or Jeff Bridges.

Supporting Actor

Christian Bale, The Fighter
Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
Jeremy Renner, The Town
Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech

Bale will probably win in this race that comes down to him and Rush. Mark Ruffalo sure better be nominated, and I think Jeremy Renner will be too, although there is slight chance for his co-star Pete Postlethwaite (The Town) to get a posthumous nomination. If that happens, or the more likely scenario of John Hawkes (Winter's Bone) being nominated, then Garfield might find himself off the list.

Spoiler: Justin Timberlake proved his acting chops in The Social Network, holding his own against Jesse Eisenberg and Andrew Garfield. Could it lead to his first Oscar nomination?


Actress

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine

The ladies are tough this year, which is why I grouped them together. While Annette Bening and Natalie Portman are sure to duke it out for the win, it gets murkier after that. The problem is that there are three potential performers, none of the frontrunners, who could possibly be nominated in either the lead or supporting category. Although they may be campaigning for one or the other, that doesn't matter to the Oscar voters, who choose which category a performance gets nominated in. Recall Kate Winslet a few years ago. Her studios pushed her for lead actress for Revolutionary Road and supporting actress in The Reader, presumably so that she could be nominated for both and avoid canceling herself out. Instead, voters nominated her performance in The Reader as a lead. The three performances this year are Hailee Steinfield (True Grit), who's being pushed in the supporting category for what is really a lead role; Lesley Manville (Another Year), who I've seen mentioned in both categories (I haven't seen the film); and Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right), who is falling prey to sexism if people see her performance as a supporting one (if her character was a man, there would be no question it is a lead role). In the end, I think they could all lose out in the lead race, as voters go for performances for which there is no confusion: Kidman, Lawrence, and (hopefully) Williams.

Spoiler: Once again in a year where Annette Bening is getting major Oscar buzz, Hilary Swank (Conviction) could swoop in and spoil it all. For a real offbeat nomination, how about Noomi Rapace for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo?


Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech
Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit
Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

Adams, Leo, and Carter are the frontunners here, and I'm sure they will all be recognized. I think Steinfeld will end up here anyway (I know I said Oscar voters weren't fooled by Winslet, but they have been fooled in the past, like nominating The English Patient's Juliette Binoche in supporting, even though she had more screen time than "lead" Kristin Scott Thomas). Also, I haven't seen Animal Kingdom, but Jacki Weaver seems to have good buzz.

Spoiler: Would love to see a nod for Black Swan's Mila Kunis or Barbara Hershey. Both were great.

Director

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
David Fincher, The Social Network
Tom Hooper, The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan, Inception
David O. Russell, The Fighter

This is the Directors' Guild lineup, which is a safe bet, but if there is a deviation from that, perhaps the Coen Brothers (True Grit) or Danny Boyle (127 Hours) could find a spot on the list.

Adapted Screenplay

Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

Original Screenplay

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech

Editing

Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Cinematography

Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network
True Grit

Art Direction

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
Inception
The King's Speech
True Grit

Costume Design

Alice in Wonderland
Black Swan
The King's Speech
The Tempest
True Grit

Makeup

Alice in Wonderland
Barney's Version
The Wolfman

Visual Effects

Alice in Wonderland
Harry Potter 7.1
Inception
Iron Man 2
Tron Legacy

Sound Editing

Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
Tron Legacy
True Grit

Sound Mixing

Black Swan
Inception
Shutter Island
The Social Network
True Grit

Score

Alice in Wonderland
How to Train Your Dragon
Inception
The King's Speech
The Social Network

Song

"You Haven't Seen the Last of Me," Burlesque
"If I Rise," 127 Hours
"I See the Light," Tangled
"We Belong Together," Toy Story 3
"Shine," Waiting for Superman

Animated Feature

How to Train Your Dragon
The Illusionist
Toy Story 3

Documentary Feature

Exit through the Gift Shop
Inside Job
Restrepo
The Tillman Story
Waiting for Superman

Oscar Nominees Predictions

So many awards shows to predict! I guess it's silly, but I have fun doing it. Here are my predictions for the Oscar nominations, which are announced on Tuesday. The awards will be presented March 7.

Best Picture

Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

With 10 movies in the mix this year, it will be extremely difficult to accurately predict the nominees this year. Interestingly, five films have really emerged as the frontrunners for a nomination, and in any other year, these would be the sole nominees: Avatar, an amazing technical achievement that has become the highest-grossing movie ever; The Hurt Locker, a visceral Iraq war drama; Up in the Air, a thinking man's comedy/drama about a rootless recession-era existence; Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino's deliciously stylized World War II revision; and Precious, a gritty inner-city look at a girl's struggle to find herself. Beyond the top 5, An Education and Up look like good bets, which will make Up only the second animated film ever to be nominated for Best Picture (after Beauty & the Beast in 1992). I didn't care for A Serious Man, but I think it has a lot of Academy support and buzz to get a spot. After that, it gets harder. Nine and The Lovely Bones had Academy pedigree but got such piss-poor reviews, that I think both movies are surely dead. Invictus is a toss-up. I enjoyed it, and it had a lot of buzz prior to its release, but it seemed to die off really quickly. The Hangover could make an appearance here, but even though I thought the story was creative, I didn't think it was so hilarious. I'd much rather see (500) Days of Summer here, but I'm afraid that won't happen. Stylish Tom Ford's directorial debut A Single Man deserves Art Direction and Costume Design nods, as well as some acting ones, but I doubt it's hefty enough for Best Picture. Science Fiction had a great year in 2009, and wouldn't it be fun to see a Star Trek film get a Best Picture nod? I doubt it will happen, but I think it's a good possibility for District 9, which was honored with a Producer's Guild nod (as was Star Trek, by the way). I'd love to say that Crazy Heart has a shot here, but I really doubt it. I think the Iraq war will be the inspiration for not one, but two best picture nominees this year, sending The Messenger into the mix.

What I would choose: Up in the Air, Avatar, (500) Days of Summer, Crazy Heart, Star Trek, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, District 9, Precious

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Jeff Bridges has emerged as the front-runner to win this year, and deservedly so, as his performance in Crazy Heart is amazing. If you haven't seen it--go see it. It's really good. George Clooney and Colin Firth look like shoo-ins for their respective roles as a man who refuses to be tied down and a man who contemplates ending it all after the death of his partner. Morgan Freeman was the best part of Invictus, and his studied portrayal of Nelson Mandela deserves a nod. Fifth place is a bit "up in the air" this year. There was talk of Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine, but the film is DOA. Viggo Mortensen could be a contender for The Road, although the film underperformed. Matt Damon for The Informant, Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man, and Ben Foster for The Messenger look like longshots. I think slot #5 will go to Jeremy Renner, as the reckless/troubled bomb squad leader in The Hurt Locker.

What I would choose: Bridges, Clooney, Firth and Freeman for sure. I might give a nod to Joseph Gordon-Leavitt's earnest, lovelorn architect-to-be from (500) Days of Summer.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

This is the easiest of the acting slates to predict this year. The winner is a different story (but we have a month to worry about that). Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock lead the pack, and will be duking it out for the award in March. Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan share newcomers-of-the-year honors for their vastly different yet interestingly similar roles of girls making the difficult transition to womanhood in places so extraordinarily different as to be two separate worlds (the underbelly of 1980s New York vs. 1960s suburban London). I've not yet seen The Last Station--it opens next weekend in DC--but I hear Helen Mirren is fabulous as Leo Tolstoy's wife, so I'm sure she'll get it. The rest are real longshots: Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria, Abbie Cornish for Bright Star, Penelope Cruz for Broken Embraces, and Marion Cotillard for Nine.

What I would choose: Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe, and if I get a chance to see the films, I imagine I'd be up for Mirren and maybe Bullock too. That lack of good roles for women is really showing itself this year, isn't it?

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Christophe Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

This one's a bit trickier. Christophe Waltz is the easy frontrunner for his portrayal of the Nazi baddie in Inglourious Basterds, followed somewhat closely by the soldier-with-demons performance by Woody Harrelson in The Messenger. Again, I haven't seen The Last Station yet, but I hear Christopher Plummer is great as Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station (a possibility for lead actor actually, depending on how the Academy decides to go). The last two slots are harder. I thought Alfred Molina was great as the father in An Education, but his buzz never really picked up. Stanley Tucci had a lot of good buzz for The Lovely Bones, but I think the film's poor reception might damage his chances (although he did get a SAG nod). I'm giving his spot to Christian McKay for Me and Orson Welles, another movie I didn't see, so I'm out on a limb here. I did see Invictus, and I thought Matt Damon was quite deserving, so I'm giving him the last slot over Peter Saarsgard (excellent in An Education), Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker), and Alec Baldwin (It's Complicated).

What I would choose: Waltz, Harrelson, Damon, and Saarsgard. Molina too, although I expect I'll appreciate Plummer in The Last Station.

Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Mo'Nique, Precious

This is an interesting race this year. Mo'Nique is the frontrunner for her portrayal of the evil mother in Precious, despite her public refusal to campaign for the award (which could lead to an upset for the win, but she'll still surely be nominated). Both Up in the Air women should make the cut too--Vera Farmiga as the older, slightly world-weary but still ready to play woman and Anna Kendrick as the young upstart. After those three, there's lots vying for the last two slots. Some pundits are writing off Julieanne Moore, but she was fantastic in A Single Man, despite a smallish role. I think Samantha Morton will prevail for the last spot as the widow in The Messenger. Yet there are lots of other great choices. Both Melanie Laurent as a revenge-seeking moviehouse operator and Diane Kruger as a popular German actress have a shot from Inglourious Basterds, but both are such unknowns too. I was quite taken by Paul Patton's performance as the teacher in Precious, and Mariah Carey, as the social worker, got quite a bit of buzz at one point. An Avatar sweep could throw in Sigourney Weaver, or even Zoe Saldana as one of the alien women (although I think that is a real longshot). If Nine had done better, it certainly has plenty of women to choose from (Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, and Sophia Loren, for example). Who I'd really, really love to see here is Maggie Gyllenhaal as the love interest/journalist/mother from Crazy Heart. She's such an underrated talent.

What I would choose: Farmiga, Kendrick, Gyllenhaal, Patton, and Moore (take that Mo'Nique).

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avator
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Isn't it fun that the leading contenders for Best Director this year are divorcees? Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron were married from 1989 to 1991 (she was his third wife; he's now on number five). They were DGA nominees, along with Lee Daniels, Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino, making them the most likely nonimees. As a new face, Lee Daniels is the most vulnerable though, which could leave room for longtime Academy favorite Clint Eastwood (Invictus) to claim the final spot. Longshots include The Coen Brothers for A Serious Man, Jane Campion for Bright Star, and Lone Scherfig for An Education.

What I would choose: Cameron, Bigelow, Reitman, Tarantino, and Tom Ford for pulling together a masterful debut with A Single Man.

Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Other possibles: The Hangover, Avatar, It's Complicated

Avatar is vulnerable here, since some people don't like the story (whatever, I think they just want to knock it). The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man look pretty solid. Pixar movies tend to get screenplay nods, so expect to see Up here. I'm hoping (500) Days of Summer can triumph over The Hangover for the last spot.

Adapted Screenplay

An Education
District 9
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

Other possibles: Invictus, The Road, A Single Man, The Last Station, Crazy Heart, Star Trek

Up in the Air and Precious are the shoo-ins. An Education should make the cut. District 9, which some people don't realize is an adaptation, looks like a good choice too. I hope Julie & Julia makes it, since, after all, it is an adaptation of two different books into one film, which is pretty impressive. The WGA also honored Crazy Heart and Star Trek; I give the former a better chance.

Animated Feature

Coraline
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Documentary Feature

The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Living in Emergency
Under Our Skin

Foreign Film

Ajami (Israel)
A Prophet (France)
El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Winter in Wartime (The Netherland)

Cinematography

Avatar
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Film Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air

Art Direction

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Public Enemies
Sherlock Holmes

Costume Design

Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Makeup

District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek

Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Sound Mixing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers 2

Sound Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers 2
Up

Score

Avatar
Coco Before Chanel
The Princess and the Frog
Sherlock Holmes
Up

Song

Avatar, "I See You"
Crazy Heart, "The Weary Kind"
Nine, "Cinema Italiano"
The Princess and the Frog, "Almost There"
The Princess and the Frog, "Down in New Orleans"

Most Nominations

Avatar - 10
The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds - 8
Up in the Air - 7
District 9 - 6

For the major awards, I'm going to list what I predict will be nominated as well as what I would vote for if I were an Oscar voter

Picture

Prediction:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Slumdog Millionaire has emerged the clear favorite of the awards season this year, making it the Best Picture frontrunner. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button also looks like a sure bet for a nomination, as it has the potential to draw support from all over the academy. Frost/Nixon and Milk are looking like likely bets at this point too, despite no Globe for Milk and receding buzz for Frost/Nixon. The fifth spot is a little harder, but at this point, the best bet is The Dark Knight, the year's highest grossing picture and probably the best-reviewed superhero film ever. It would appear to have the edge over the actor-friendly Doubt, Revolutionary Road, which has failed to generate expected buzz, animated favorite Wall-E, and The Reader, which caused a stir last week when it received a BAFTA nod instead of Dark Knight. Clint Eastwood films have a tendency to sneak in late during the awards season--both Million Dollar Baby and Letters from Iwo Jima rode mounting buzz to successful nominations--but Gran Torino looks to be getting too few accolades to repeat that feat.

My picks:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. Gran Torino
4. Doubt
5. Man on Wire

Given that I only love two of the Best Picture frontrunners--Milk and Slumdog Millionaire--I'd love to see an upset this year. In fact, there are probably a dozen films I'd rather see nominated than Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight, all of which I thought were pretty good but disappointing and not best picture material. I'm rooting heavily for Gran Torino, but I'd also be happy with Doubt, The Reader or Revolutionary Road getting in there (as well as The Visitor, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona, Burn After Reading, The Wrestler, Frozen River, and Happy-Go-Lucky). I recognize that Man on Wire doesn't have a chance, but I thought it was a remarkable film.

Actor

Prediction:

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Except for supporting actor, the acting races are much more open this year than in recent years. Sure there are still frontrunners. Sean Penn is probably still in the lead for actor, even though he didn't win a Globe, although the man he lost too--Mickey Rourke--should definitely consider it a boost to his chances. Frank Langella should be pretty secure in getting a nod too. There's really four other actors vying for the other two slots: Leonardo DiCaprio is certainly a respected actor, but his costars are getting better buzz than he is for Revolutionary Road. Brad Pitt is talked about a lot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but I really hope he doesn't get it. What was so great about his performance? It was all special effects. I'm hoping the Academy agrees with me and decides to reward its buddy Clint Eastwood a nod for what he says will be his last major role in Gran Torino and Richard Jenkins extraordinary portrayal of a lowly college professor whose life is re-energized when he becomes involved in a Syrian family's immigration struggle in The Visitor.

My picks:

1. Sean Penn, Milk
2. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. David Kross, The Reader

I hope Sean Penn wins, as he was so wonderful in Milk. Mickey Rourke and Clint Eastwood were really good too. I was pleasantly surprised by Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, which was a really great movie, and new face David Kross was really quite remarkable in The Reader as a teenage German boy who has an affair with an older woman (Kate Winslet) and later, as a law student, witnesses her trial for having served as a Nazi officer during World War II. Since I know Kross doesn't have a shot, I'd be happy with Langella or DiCaprio getting a nod, but I really don't want Pitt in there (sorry Brad).

Actress

Prediction:

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

The actress race is a lot like the actor one this year--three frontrunners without a clear favorite. Those would be Anne Hathaway's stunning turn in Rachel Getting Married, always-good Meryl Streep in Doubt, and Kate Winslet's Globe-winning portrayal of a depressed '50s suburban housewife in Revolutionary Road. Then again like the actors there seems to be four actresses most likely to get the last two slots. Sally Hawkins won the comedy/musical Globe (and she was fantastic), making her the mostly likely of the four to get a nod. Angelina Jolie has a strong chance for Changeling, which I didn't see, but I don't remember it getting good reviews, and Jolie was overlooked last year for A Mighty Heart (although that could be a reason to not overlook her this year). I'm hoping instead of Jolie the Academy is wowed by Kristin Scott Thomas's brilliant acting in I've Loved You So Long. She really was quite extraordinary. It's probably too much to hope that Melissa Leo would be recognized for her portrayal of a desperate working mother in Frozen River. Cate Blanchett should also be noted as an outside shot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

My picks:

1. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
4. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
5. Melissa Leo, Frozen River

It's a hard choice to pick just five, since that means I couldn't include Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky, who was also fantastic, as was Kate Winslet for The Reader (yes, I know she's being pushed for supporting, I'll get to that in a minute).

Supporting Actor

Prediction:

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

This one is no contest this year. Give it to Heath Ledger now, since we all know he is going to win. The race here is who else gets nominated, as it is fairly competitive. The buzz favors Philip Seymour Hoffman, Josh Brolin, and Robert Downey Jr. as likely nominees, leaving a last spot that three actors seem to be competing for: Dev Patel, as the most central character in ensemble Slumdog Millionaire, James Franco in Milk, and Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road. I'm betting it will be Shannon, who was really quite extraordinary as the mentally disturbed adult-child of the Wheelers' neighbor-realtor (Kathy Bates). Running a distant fourth for that last slot is Eddie Marsan as the cranky driving instructor from Happy-Go-Lucky.

My picks:

1. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
4. Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
5. James Franco, Milk

My list is pretty different, isn't it? I was really blown away by Michael Shannon, who'd I've never heard of before. I agree Ledger deserves a nomination and he probably deserves to win too, but I'm just not a big Dark Knight fan. Hoffman was good as usual. I wasn't a fan of Tropic Thunder, so no Downey Jr. for me. I like James Franco better than Josh Brolin in Milk. I thought Dev Patel was excellent in Slumdog Millionaire, delivering its most uplifting scenes. Not on my list, but also good this year was Brad Pitt in Burn After Reading. I thought Pitt was really great in that movie. I'd much rather see him recognized for that uncharacteristic work than for Benjamin Button, which seemed like "business as usual" for him. I'd also like to give a shout out to endearing newcomer Bee Vang as the neighbor boy Eastwood takes under his wing in Gran Torino.

Supporting Actress

Prediction:

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

This category got a good shake-up recently, so it's probably the most up-in-the-air at this point. That would be Kate Winslet, winning the Globe for The Reader. I'm conflicted about this. I love Kate Winslet, and she was amazing in The Reader...But it was a LEAD ROLE! It's not fair to the other actresses. The Academy should really consider some better criteria for what constitutes a lead versus a supporting role, for certainly an actor who appears all throughout a film with many scenes and is central to the story should be considered a lead role, yes? I won't rant further. Penelope Cruz looks like a sure thing as a manic artist in Vicky Christina Barcelona, as does Viola Davis for Doubt, despite having really only one scene (but it was a really good one scene). I wasn't wowed by her, but Marisa Tomei looks like a likely nominee for The Wrestler. With Kate Winslet now firmly in the mix, I expect Amy Adams in Doubt will get squeezed out, with Taraji P. Henson getting the last spot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I'd love to see Rosemarie DeWitt get recognized for Rachel Getting Married, but I don't think it will happen. Distant longshots include Kathy Bates for Revolutionary Road and Tilda Swinton for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

My picks:

1. Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
2. Elsa Zylberstein, I've Loved You So Long
3. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
4. Viola Davis, Doubt
5. Misty Upham, Frozen River

In this category I depart quite a bit from I expect will be recognized. My two favorites were those playing sisters of troubled lead characters: Rosemarie DeWitt as the title character in Rachel Getting Married, who showed such grace as the "good" sister holding everything together for her wedding and family while her nutty sister threatened to tear it all apart. Elsa Zylberstein was remarkable too as the sympathetic and loving sister to Kristin Scott Thomas. I liked Viola Davis enough to give her a vote for Doubt, despite being in one scene. My last pick goes to Misty Upham, the American Indian woman who served as Melissa Leo's parter-in-crime in Frozen River--another star turn from an unknown. Also worth noting is Hiam Abbass as the mother in The Visitor and Evan Rachel Wood, whom I liked better than Tomei in The Wrestler, and Cynthia Nixon, who effectively reprised her Emmy Award-winning role in the Sex and the City movie.

Director

My prediction:

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

I think it's silly whenever this category doesn't align perfectly with Best Picture. How can you say a picture is worthy of winning the Academy's biggest award, but the person who directs the film isn't? So my prediction for director matches picture. Other possibilities would be Stephen Daldry for The Reader, Darren Aronofsky for The Wrestler, Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino, Woody Allen for Vicky Christina Barcelona, Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married, and Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road--mostly just because they are recognizeable names.

My picks:

1. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. Gus Van Sant, Milk
3. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
4. John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
5. James Marsh, Man on Wire

These are my picks for director to match my picks for picture.

Adapted Screenplay

My prediction:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The big question in this race is whether The Dark Knight will be nominated over The Reader. While The Dark Knight received a WGA nomination, I'm betting that the Academy will instead choose to honor The Reader's more intriguing story. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a shoo in, developing an epic film from a short story, as is Slumdog Millionaire. The last two slots go to this years big play-to-film adaptations, Frost/Nixon and Doubt. I don't expect to see Revolutionary Road in here, but it's also in the running in a year with relatively few prominent adaptations.

My picks:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Doubt
3. Revolutionary Road
4. The Reader
5. Frost/Nixon

Original Screenplay

My prediction:

Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
The Visitor
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Among the top races, this is perhaps the hardest to call this year, with a plethora of choices and few obvious favorites. The real obvious favorite has to be Milk, the only top contender for Best Picture that isn't an adaptation. Woody Allen is frequently honored for screenplay writing--he's been nominated 14 times--so I expect we'll see his witty and sexy Vicky Christina Barcelona honored. Beyond those two, this is pretty open. The writers' guild honored Burn After Reading, The Visitor, and The Wrestler, making them all strong contenders, particularly the very human stories of The Visitor and The Wrestler. My guess is Burn After Reading will be overlooked in favor of Wall-E, following the tradition of Pixar's stronger offerings being nominated here, an honor Wall-E would share with Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, and Ratatouille. Other potential nominees: tough family drama Rachel Getting Married, Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino, and Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky. Further away, but still in the mention: In Bruges, Frozen River, and Synechdoche New York.

My picks:

1. Milk
2. Gran Torino
3. The Visitor
4. Frozen River
5. The Wrestler

2009 Oscar Nominees - Technical and other categories predictions

The Oscar nominees for 2008 films will be announced January 22. Here are my predictions for the 13 of the 16 minor categories (all but the shorts, which I have no idea about. Major categories will follow with more in-depth discussion):

Cinematography

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Millionaire and gorgeous With the relative lack of "sumptuous" period pieces this year, this is much easier than usual. These were the American Society of Cinematographers' picks, and I don't see why Oscar would stray from that. All these films were visually stunning, particularly the colorful SlumdogBenjamin Button, which I'm not a big fan of, but I won't deny it wasn't a beautiful film. Roger Deakins, a double nominee last year for No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, looks likely to again be a double nominee this year for Revolutionary Road and The Reader, the latter on which he shared duties with Chris Menges. Deakins has been nominated for this award seven times without a win.

Art Direction

Changeing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Benjamin Button and Slumdog again are the leaders here, both of which feature era-spanning and international appeal. Australia and The Reader would seem like candidates, but both were ignored by the Art Directors' Guild. However, that guild did honor Clint Eastwood's Changeling, which is unlikely to get many other nods, as well as Milk, which did an excellent job of recreating 1970s San Francisco. The Dark Knight should also get in for its fine balance of urban reality and fantasy.

Costume Design

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Sex and the City
Slumdog Millionaire

Like the Art Directors, the Constume Designers guild also divides its nominees into period, contemporary and fantasy categories, giving hints about who will make it to Oscar, but not as clear a picture as some other guilds. As usual, I expect the lavish period pieces to mostly reign, so in goes Changeling, Benajmin Button, and the Duchess. The less lavish period pieces Milk and Revolutionary Road could have a shot, but I think they may get squeezed out by the Indian costuming of Slumdog Millionaire and Patricia Field's contemporary fashion work for Sex and the City, where like in 2006's The Devil Wears Prada (also costumed by Field) fashion is such a crucial element of the film. I'm expecting superhero and fantasy films like The Dark Knight, Iron Man, and The Chronicles of Narnia to be shut out.

Film Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

The American Cinema Editors picked these five films, which also happen to be the best picture frontrunners. If the film editing nominees match the best nominees exactly, it will be the first time that's happened since 2002.

Foreign Film

The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
The Departures (Japan)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

With Italy's Gommorah out, Israel's animated documentary Waltz with Bashir would appear to be the frontrunner, with France's The Class (this year's Cannes Palm d'Or winner) close behind. I don't know much about the rest of the nine qualifying films, but action-packed The Baader Meinhof Complex looks interesting and I've heard it should be considered a top contender. I've also heard The Departures is supposed to be excellent. While I've heard the Austrian film Revanche talked about, I'm going with Sweden's Everlasting Moments as my fifth pick.

Score

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Andre Desplat)
The Dark Knight (Hans Zimmer and James Newton Howard)
Revolutionary Road (Thomas Newman)
Slumdog Millionaire (A.R. Rahman)
Wall-E (Thomas Newman)

I love film scores, but only two really stood out to be this year: Andre Desplat's gorgeous and appropriately epic work for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Thomas Newman's Revolutionary Road (which reminded me a bit of his previous scores for Scent of a Woman and American Beauty, which I both liked). Desplat was nominated two years ago for The Queen and I think should have also been nominated for The Painted Veil. I don't really remember the Wall-E score, but I hear it's got a lot of buzz to give Newman a second nod this year. Slumdog Millionaire was a surprisingly musical movie, so it should get in, as should The Dark Knight from Hans Zimmer and James Newton Howard, both 7-time nominees. John Williams has some buzz for Indiana Jones 4, but I'm thinking it won't make it, since this is hardly new territory for him.

Song

"I Thought I Lost You" Bolt
"Jai Ho" Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya" Slumdog Millionaire
"Down to Earth" Wall-E
"The Wrestler" The Wrestler

In addition to being a great story and a visual feast, Slumdog Millionaire had great music--both a memorable score and great songs, so I expect two of them to show up here: "Jai Ho," the energetic number used during the very memorable end credits dance sequence, and "O Saya," another good song that includes M.I.A. Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler" is a great song that fits the mood of the movie perfectly. Disney is generally strong, so I expect Peter Gariel's "Down to Earth" from Wall-E to be in. The fifth pick is hard. "Once in a Lifetime" from Cadillac Records may be disqualified, since apparently it was written before the film. "Gran Torino" is an option, although I don't think it has a lot of support. "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" from Hamlet 2 would certainly be an irreverent choice. I expect Miley Cyrus and John Travolta's "I Thought I Lost You" from Bolt will be in the last spot.

Documentary Feature

Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water

Two of the documentaries I saw this year, "American Teen" and "Religulous," didn't make the longlist, so don't look for them to be nominated. The third, "Man on Wire," is this year's documentary frontrunner. Timely and political "Trouble the Water" and "I.O.U.S.A." should make the list. For my other two picks I'm going with the Antarctic "Encounters at the End of the World" and "Standard Operating Procedure" over "Made in America" and the film about Philip Glass ("Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts").

Animated Feature

Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir

Waltz with Bashir looks interesting, but Wall-E is still the obvious frontrunner here. I'm going with Kung Fu Panda over Bolt for the third slot.

Sound

The sound awards tend to be a mix of the sweeping dramas and big action films (with more emphasis on the latter for the editing category).

Mixing:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Editing:

The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E

Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

This seems pretty obvious when you look at the list of seven finalists (which did not include Indiana Jones 4). The other four films were Australia, Hellboy 2, Journey to the Center of the Earth, and The Mummy. I saw Iron Man last night and I liked it. Benjamin Button will probably win this one, as well as Makeup, for the combined achievement of aging/de-aging Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett.

Makeup

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder

The Reader and Synechdoche New York both made the final seven for their aging work, but Benjamin Button did it better. While The Dark Knight's Joker wasn't technically challenging, it was very effective and a new take on the character. Tropic Thunder transformed both Tom Cruise and Robert Downey Jr. (or rather Robert Downey Jr.'s character).

In summary:

8 - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
8 - The Dark Knight
8 - Slumdog Millionaire
5 - Wall-E
3 - Iron Man
2 - Changeling
2 - Milk
2 - Revolutionary Road
2 - Waltz with Bashir
1 - Bolt
1 - The Duchess
1 - Frost/Nixon
1 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skill
1 - Kung Fu Panda
1 - Quantum of Solace
1 - The Reader
1 - Sex and the City
1 - Tropic of Thunder
1 - The Wrestler

Final Oscar Predictions

The Oscars are now just 3 hours away. Here are my final predications and notes on every category.

Picture (not very competitive): No Country for Old Men has it in the bag. While it's not perfect, none of the other four has what it takes to unseat it. None has even emerged as a darkhorse favorite like we usually have such as Little Miss Sunshine last year or notably Crash 2 years ago. Personal pick: Atonement.

Actor (not very competitive): Last year it was the ladies' racies that were easy to predict; this year it's the reverse. All but the very skeptical are predicting Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood). Personal pick: Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah).

Actress (competitive): In recent weeks, it looks like Julie Christie (Away from Her) is the clear favorite, but she's still facing competition, primarily from Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose), but also Ellen Page (Juno). Personal pick: Laura Linney (The Savages).

Supporting Actress (very competitive): The most hotly contested of the acting races. The only sure thing is that Saorise Ronan (Atonement) won't get it. Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There) was the early favorite, but few saw her film (and she won recently), then Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone) emerged as the favorite for a moment, until Ruby Dee (American Gangster) gained surprised momentum from her SAG award, but then Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton), snagged the BAFTA, tilting the favor her way. Dee may be the sentimental favorite, and I have a nagging suspicion that I should stick with my guns and say Ryan, but I'm going to flip flop and say it will go to Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton), but for the fact that if Michael Clayton doesn't win this award, it probably won't get anything. Personal pick: Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone).

Supporting Actor (somewhat competitive): Havier Bardem (No Country for Old Men) looks set to pick this one up, although there is some talk that Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild) could steal it as a sentimental favorite. Personal pick: Casey Affleck (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford).

Director (not very competitive). Joel and Ethan Coen (No Country for Old Men) a.k.a. "The Coen Brothers" will walk away with this Oscar tonight, with only the very slightest chance it will go to avante garde Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly) instead. Personal pick: The Coens (No Country for Old Men).

Adapted Screenplay (not very competitive). No Country for Old Men should take this easily, unless that bizarre ending scares voters away toward There Will Be Blood. Personal pick: Atonement.

Original Screenplay (not very competitive). Juno is the clear frontrunner, for its winning blend of humor and thoughtfulness. However, wouldn't it be interesting if Michael Clayton stole this one? Personal pick: Juno.

Cinematography (somewhat competitive). This is an interesting one. Roger Deakins should be the frontrunner, since he's up for both No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, however, that may work against him here, splitting votes, to pave the way for There Will Be Blood to win. Personal pick: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford.

Art Direction (competitive). The wild card in many of the tech categories is how much the Academy will respond to Sweeney Todd. EW picked it as their choice over more traditional Atonement. But I think it will go to spare There Will Be Blood, which has a lot of love these days. Personal pick: Atonement

Costume Design (competitive). Again, Sweeney Todd is the wild card here. While the costumes were ornate, I thought they were rather drab. Atonement on the other hand has that green dress, which is like iconic now, and while a film shouldn't win this for one ensemble, there was other good work there too. Personal pick: Atonement.

Film Editing (not very competitive). It would be a real upset for an action movie like The Bourne Ultimatum to take this away from the probable best picture winner, No Country for Old Men. Personal pick: No Country for Old Men.

Score (not very competitive). Atonement should beat Ratatouille for this, and not just because of the innovative use of a typewriter as a musical instrument--it's beautiful music. Personal pick: Atonement.

Song (not very competitive). Surprised it's not competitive? Sure Enchanted looks like the favorite with three nominations in this category, but Enchanted was a fabulous movie because of Amy Adams and its clever script--no one remembers the songs. So none of the three emerges from the pack. In contrast, "Falling Slowly" was a poignant moment in Once, so it should easily win. (Too bad Once's "When Your Mind's Made Up" didn't get a nod too.) Personal pick: "Falling Slowly" (Once).

Documental feature (somewhat competitive). I'm disappointed I didn't get to see Taxi to the Dark Side, but I did see the two frontrunners, Sicko and No End in Sight, the latter of which is the favorite, although I found Sicko more affecting. Personal pick: Sicko

Documentary short (competitive). Everyone says Freeheld will win, but Sari's Mother may have a shot. Although I haven't seen it, I'm rooting for Freeheld based on the trailer and its subject matter: workplace benefits discrimination against same-sex couples. Personal pick: Freeheld.

Foreign Language Film (not very competitive). With Persepolis and 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days eliminated from the contest (not to mention The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, La Vie en Rose, or The Orphanage), The Counterfeiters (Austria) should win. Personal pick: None (haven't seen any of the nominees).

Animated Feature (somewhat competitive). As cool as it would be to see this go to innovative Persepolis, I think Pixar can clear room in their trophy case for another Oscar for Ratatouille. Personal pick: Persepolis.

Animated Short (competitive). The Beatles interview turned animation of I Met the Walrus is the favorite, but Madame Tutli-Putli could also get it. Personal pick: I Met the Walrus.

Live Action Short (competitive). I haven't seen any of these, and I've read predictions for At Night, Tanghi Argentini, and The Tonto Woman. I guess I'll go with the latter, for no good reason. Personal pick: None (haven't seen any of the nominees).

Makeup (not very competitive). Have you seen Marion Cotillard? She's young and beautiful. That she was transformed convincingly into Edith Pilaf both as a young, middle age, and old woman for La Vie en Rose is astounding. Plus, the Academy cannot let Norbit become "Academy Award-Winning Norbit." Personal pick: La Vie en Rose.

Sound Mixing (competitive). Hard to see with these. Action film with the big boom or drama wit the big impact? I'm hoping the latter, for the layering of sounds in No Country for Old Men was crucial for building suspense, and it was done so well. Still, Transformers would be the traditional pick. Personal pick: No Country for Old Men.

Sound editing (competitive). But when it comes to the sound effects themselves, it's hard to ignore the sheer volume and creativity required for an action film. Still, I'm crossing my fingers the academy will pick the better action film, The Bourne Ultimatum, over Transformers, which wasn't my cup of tea. Personal pick: The Bourne Ultimatum

Visual effects (not very competitive). Okay Transformers, here's your Oscar. Personal pick: Must I? Transformers.