For the major awards, I'm going to list what I predict will be nominated as well as what I would vote for if I were an Oscar voter

Picture

Prediction:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Slumdog Millionaire has emerged the clear favorite of the awards season this year, making it the Best Picture frontrunner. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button also looks like a sure bet for a nomination, as it has the potential to draw support from all over the academy. Frost/Nixon and Milk are looking like likely bets at this point too, despite no Globe for Milk and receding buzz for Frost/Nixon. The fifth spot is a little harder, but at this point, the best bet is The Dark Knight, the year's highest grossing picture and probably the best-reviewed superhero film ever. It would appear to have the edge over the actor-friendly Doubt, Revolutionary Road, which has failed to generate expected buzz, animated favorite Wall-E, and The Reader, which caused a stir last week when it received a BAFTA nod instead of Dark Knight. Clint Eastwood films have a tendency to sneak in late during the awards season--both Million Dollar Baby and Letters from Iwo Jima rode mounting buzz to successful nominations--but Gran Torino looks to be getting too few accolades to repeat that feat.

My picks:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Milk
3. Gran Torino
4. Doubt
5. Man on Wire

Given that I only love two of the Best Picture frontrunners--Milk and Slumdog Millionaire--I'd love to see an upset this year. In fact, there are probably a dozen films I'd rather see nominated than Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon and The Dark Knight, all of which I thought were pretty good but disappointing and not best picture material. I'm rooting heavily for Gran Torino, but I'd also be happy with Doubt, The Reader or Revolutionary Road getting in there (as well as The Visitor, Rachel Getting Married, Vicky Christina Barcelona, Burn After Reading, The Wrestler, Frozen River, and Happy-Go-Lucky). I recognize that Man on Wire doesn't have a chance, but I thought it was a remarkable film.

Actor

Prediction:

Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Except for supporting actor, the acting races are much more open this year than in recent years. Sure there are still frontrunners. Sean Penn is probably still in the lead for actor, even though he didn't win a Globe, although the man he lost too--Mickey Rourke--should definitely consider it a boost to his chances. Frank Langella should be pretty secure in getting a nod too. There's really four other actors vying for the other two slots: Leonardo DiCaprio is certainly a respected actor, but his costars are getting better buzz than he is for Revolutionary Road. Brad Pitt is talked about a lot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but I really hope he doesn't get it. What was so great about his performance? It was all special effects. I'm hoping the Academy agrees with me and decides to reward its buddy Clint Eastwood a nod for what he says will be his last major role in Gran Torino and Richard Jenkins extraordinary portrayal of a lowly college professor whose life is re-energized when he becomes involved in a Syrian family's immigration struggle in The Visitor.

My picks:

1. Sean Penn, Milk
2. Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
3. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
4. Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
5. David Kross, The Reader

I hope Sean Penn wins, as he was so wonderful in Milk. Mickey Rourke and Clint Eastwood were really good too. I was pleasantly surprised by Richard Jenkins in The Visitor, which was a really great movie, and new face David Kross was really quite remarkable in The Reader as a teenage German boy who has an affair with an older woman (Kate Winslet) and later, as a law student, witnesses her trial for having served as a Nazi officer during World War II. Since I know Kross doesn't have a shot, I'd be happy with Langella or DiCaprio getting a nod, but I really don't want Pitt in there (sorry Brad).

Actress

Prediction:

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road

The actress race is a lot like the actor one this year--three frontrunners without a clear favorite. Those would be Anne Hathaway's stunning turn in Rachel Getting Married, always-good Meryl Streep in Doubt, and Kate Winslet's Globe-winning portrayal of a depressed '50s suburban housewife in Revolutionary Road. Then again like the actors there seems to be four actresses most likely to get the last two slots. Sally Hawkins won the comedy/musical Globe (and she was fantastic), making her the mostly likely of the four to get a nod. Angelina Jolie has a strong chance for Changeling, which I didn't see, but I don't remember it getting good reviews, and Jolie was overlooked last year for A Mighty Heart (although that could be a reason to not overlook her this year). I'm hoping instead of Jolie the Academy is wowed by Kristin Scott Thomas's brilliant acting in I've Loved You So Long. She really was quite extraordinary. It's probably too much to hope that Melissa Leo would be recognized for her portrayal of a desperate working mother in Frozen River. Cate Blanchett should also be noted as an outside shot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

My picks:

1. Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
2. Meryl Streep, Doubt
3. Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
4. Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
5. Melissa Leo, Frozen River

It's a hard choice to pick just five, since that means I couldn't include Sally Hawkins for Happy-Go-Lucky, who was also fantastic, as was Kate Winslet for The Reader (yes, I know she's being pushed for supporting, I'll get to that in a minute).

Supporting Actor

Prediction:

Josh Brolin, Milk
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

This one is no contest this year. Give it to Heath Ledger now, since we all know he is going to win. The race here is who else gets nominated, as it is fairly competitive. The buzz favors Philip Seymour Hoffman, Josh Brolin, and Robert Downey Jr. as likely nominees, leaving a last spot that three actors seem to be competing for: Dev Patel, as the most central character in ensemble Slumdog Millionaire, James Franco in Milk, and Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road. I'm betting it will be Shannon, who was really quite extraordinary as the mentally disturbed adult-child of the Wheelers' neighbor-realtor (Kathy Bates). Running a distant fourth for that last slot is Eddie Marsan as the cranky driving instructor from Happy-Go-Lucky.

My picks:

1. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
2. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
3. Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
4. Dev Patel, Slumdog Millionaire
5. James Franco, Milk

My list is pretty different, isn't it? I was really blown away by Michael Shannon, who'd I've never heard of before. I agree Ledger deserves a nomination and he probably deserves to win too, but I'm just not a big Dark Knight fan. Hoffman was good as usual. I wasn't a fan of Tropic Thunder, so no Downey Jr. for me. I like James Franco better than Josh Brolin in Milk. I thought Dev Patel was excellent in Slumdog Millionaire, delivering its most uplifting scenes. Not on my list, but also good this year was Brad Pitt in Burn After Reading. I thought Pitt was really great in that movie. I'd much rather see him recognized for that uncharacteristic work than for Benjamin Button, which seemed like "business as usual" for him. I'd also like to give a shout out to endearing newcomer Bee Vang as the neighbor boy Eastwood takes under his wing in Gran Torino.

Supporting Actress

Prediction:

Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader

This category got a good shake-up recently, so it's probably the most up-in-the-air at this point. That would be Kate Winslet, winning the Globe for The Reader. I'm conflicted about this. I love Kate Winslet, and she was amazing in The Reader...But it was a LEAD ROLE! It's not fair to the other actresses. The Academy should really consider some better criteria for what constitutes a lead versus a supporting role, for certainly an actor who appears all throughout a film with many scenes and is central to the story should be considered a lead role, yes? I won't rant further. Penelope Cruz looks like a sure thing as a manic artist in Vicky Christina Barcelona, as does Viola Davis for Doubt, despite having really only one scene (but it was a really good one scene). I wasn't wowed by her, but Marisa Tomei looks like a likely nominee for The Wrestler. With Kate Winslet now firmly in the mix, I expect Amy Adams in Doubt will get squeezed out, with Taraji P. Henson getting the last spot for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. I'd love to see Rosemarie DeWitt get recognized for Rachel Getting Married, but I don't think it will happen. Distant longshots include Kathy Bates for Revolutionary Road and Tilda Swinton for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.

My picks:

1. Rosemarie DeWitt, Rachel Getting Married
2. Elsa Zylberstein, I've Loved You So Long
3. Penelope Cruz, Vicky Christina Barcelona
4. Viola Davis, Doubt
5. Misty Upham, Frozen River

In this category I depart quite a bit from I expect will be recognized. My two favorites were those playing sisters of troubled lead characters: Rosemarie DeWitt as the title character in Rachel Getting Married, who showed such grace as the "good" sister holding everything together for her wedding and family while her nutty sister threatened to tear it all apart. Elsa Zylberstein was remarkable too as the sympathetic and loving sister to Kristin Scott Thomas. I liked Viola Davis enough to give her a vote for Doubt, despite being in one scene. My last pick goes to Misty Upham, the American Indian woman who served as Melissa Leo's parter-in-crime in Frozen River--another star turn from an unknown. Also worth noting is Hiam Abbass as the mother in The Visitor and Evan Rachel Wood, whom I liked better than Tomei in The Wrestler, and Cynthia Nixon, who effectively reprised her Emmy Award-winning role in the Sex and the City movie.

Director

My prediction:

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant, Milk

I think it's silly whenever this category doesn't align perfectly with Best Picture. How can you say a picture is worthy of winning the Academy's biggest award, but the person who directs the film isn't? So my prediction for director matches picture. Other possibilities would be Stephen Daldry for The Reader, Darren Aronofsky for The Wrestler, Clint Eastwood for Gran Torino, Woody Allen for Vicky Christina Barcelona, Mike Leigh for Happy-Go-Lucky, Jonathan Demme for Rachel Getting Married, and Sam Mendes for Revolutionary Road--mostly just because they are recognizeable names.

My picks:

1. Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
2. Gus Van Sant, Milk
3. Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
4. John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
5. James Marsh, Man on Wire

These are my picks for director to match my picks for picture.

Adapted Screenplay

My prediction:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

The big question in this race is whether The Dark Knight will be nominated over The Reader. While The Dark Knight received a WGA nomination, I'm betting that the Academy will instead choose to honor The Reader's more intriguing story. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button is a shoo in, developing an epic film from a short story, as is Slumdog Millionaire. The last two slots go to this years big play-to-film adaptations, Frost/Nixon and Doubt. I don't expect to see Revolutionary Road in here, but it's also in the running in a year with relatively few prominent adaptations.

My picks:

1. Slumdog Millionaire
2. Doubt
3. Revolutionary Road
4. The Reader
5. Frost/Nixon

Original Screenplay

My prediction:

Milk
Vicky Christina Barcelona
The Visitor
Wall-E
The Wrestler

Among the top races, this is perhaps the hardest to call this year, with a plethora of choices and few obvious favorites. The real obvious favorite has to be Milk, the only top contender for Best Picture that isn't an adaptation. Woody Allen is frequently honored for screenplay writing--he's been nominated 14 times--so I expect we'll see his witty and sexy Vicky Christina Barcelona honored. Beyond those two, this is pretty open. The writers' guild honored Burn After Reading, The Visitor, and The Wrestler, making them all strong contenders, particularly the very human stories of The Visitor and The Wrestler. My guess is Burn After Reading will be overlooked in favor of Wall-E, following the tradition of Pixar's stronger offerings being nominated here, an honor Wall-E would share with Toy Story, Finding Nemo, The Incredibles, and Ratatouille. Other potential nominees: tough family drama Rachel Getting Married, Clint Eastwood's Gran Torino, and Mike Leigh's Happy-Go-Lucky. Further away, but still in the mention: In Bruges, Frozen River, and Synechdoche New York.

My picks:

1. Milk
2. Gran Torino
3. The Visitor
4. Frozen River
5. The Wrestler