Oscar Nominees Predictions

So many awards shows to predict! I guess it's silly, but I have fun doing it. Here are my predictions for the Oscar nominations, which are announced on Tuesday. The awards will be presented March 7.

Best Picture

Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The Messenger
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

With 10 movies in the mix this year, it will be extremely difficult to accurately predict the nominees this year. Interestingly, five films have really emerged as the frontrunners for a nomination, and in any other year, these would be the sole nominees: Avatar, an amazing technical achievement that has become the highest-grossing movie ever; The Hurt Locker, a visceral Iraq war drama; Up in the Air, a thinking man's comedy/drama about a rootless recession-era existence; Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino's deliciously stylized World War II revision; and Precious, a gritty inner-city look at a girl's struggle to find herself. Beyond the top 5, An Education and Up look like good bets, which will make Up only the second animated film ever to be nominated for Best Picture (after Beauty & the Beast in 1992). I didn't care for A Serious Man, but I think it has a lot of Academy support and buzz to get a spot. After that, it gets harder. Nine and The Lovely Bones had Academy pedigree but got such piss-poor reviews, that I think both movies are surely dead. Invictus is a toss-up. I enjoyed it, and it had a lot of buzz prior to its release, but it seemed to die off really quickly. The Hangover could make an appearance here, but even though I thought the story was creative, I didn't think it was so hilarious. I'd much rather see (500) Days of Summer here, but I'm afraid that won't happen. Stylish Tom Ford's directorial debut A Single Man deserves Art Direction and Costume Design nods, as well as some acting ones, but I doubt it's hefty enough for Best Picture. Science Fiction had a great year in 2009, and wouldn't it be fun to see a Star Trek film get a Best Picture nod? I doubt it will happen, but I think it's a good possibility for District 9, which was honored with a Producer's Guild nod (as was Star Trek, by the way). I'd love to say that Crazy Heart has a shot here, but I really doubt it. I think the Iraq war will be the inspiration for not one, but two best picture nominees this year, sending The Messenger into the mix.

What I would choose: Up in the Air, Avatar, (500) Days of Summer, Crazy Heart, Star Trek, An Education, Inglourious Basterds, The Hurt Locker, District 9, Precious

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

Jeff Bridges has emerged as the front-runner to win this year, and deservedly so, as his performance in Crazy Heart is amazing. If you haven't seen it--go see it. It's really good. George Clooney and Colin Firth look like shoo-ins for their respective roles as a man who refuses to be tied down and a man who contemplates ending it all after the death of his partner. Morgan Freeman was the best part of Invictus, and his studied portrayal of Nelson Mandela deserves a nod. Fifth place is a bit "up in the air" this year. There was talk of Daniel Day-Lewis for Nine, but the film is DOA. Viggo Mortensen could be a contender for The Road, although the film underperformed. Matt Damon for The Informant, Michael Stuhlbarg for A Serious Man, and Ben Foster for The Messenger look like longshots. I think slot #5 will go to Jeremy Renner, as the reckless/troubled bomb squad leader in The Hurt Locker.

What I would choose: Bridges, Clooney, Firth and Freeman for sure. I might give a nod to Joseph Gordon-Leavitt's earnest, lovelorn architect-to-be from (500) Days of Summer.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

This is the easiest of the acting slates to predict this year. The winner is a different story (but we have a month to worry about that). Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock lead the pack, and will be duking it out for the award in March. Gabourey Sidibe and Carey Mulligan share newcomers-of-the-year honors for their vastly different yet interestingly similar roles of girls making the difficult transition to womanhood in places so extraordinarily different as to be two separate worlds (the underbelly of 1980s New York vs. 1960s suburban London). I've not yet seen The Last Station--it opens next weekend in DC--but I hear Helen Mirren is fabulous as Leo Tolstoy's wife, so I'm sure she'll get it. The rest are real longshots: Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria, Abbie Cornish for Bright Star, Penelope Cruz for Broken Embraces, and Marion Cotillard for Nine.

What I would choose: Streep, Mulligan, Sidibe, and if I get a chance to see the films, I imagine I'd be up for Mirren and maybe Bullock too. That lack of good roles for women is really showing itself this year, isn't it?

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrelson - The Messenger
Christian McKay - Me and Orson Welles
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Christophe Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

This one's a bit trickier. Christophe Waltz is the easy frontrunner for his portrayal of the Nazi baddie in Inglourious Basterds, followed somewhat closely by the soldier-with-demons performance by Woody Harrelson in The Messenger. Again, I haven't seen The Last Station yet, but I hear Christopher Plummer is great as Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station (a possibility for lead actor actually, depending on how the Academy decides to go). The last two slots are harder. I thought Alfred Molina was great as the father in An Education, but his buzz never really picked up. Stanley Tucci had a lot of good buzz for The Lovely Bones, but I think the film's poor reception might damage his chances (although he did get a SAG nod). I'm giving his spot to Christian McKay for Me and Orson Welles, another movie I didn't see, so I'm out on a limb here. I did see Invictus, and I thought Matt Damon was quite deserving, so I'm giving him the last slot over Peter Saarsgard (excellent in An Education), Anthony Mackie (The Hurt Locker), and Alec Baldwin (It's Complicated).

What I would choose: Waltz, Harrelson, Damon, and Saarsgard. Molina too, although I expect I'll appreciate Plummer in The Last Station.

Best Supporting Actress

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
Samantha Morton, The Messenger
Mo'Nique, Precious

This is an interesting race this year. Mo'Nique is the frontrunner for her portrayal of the evil mother in Precious, despite her public refusal to campaign for the award (which could lead to an upset for the win, but she'll still surely be nominated). Both Up in the Air women should make the cut too--Vera Farmiga as the older, slightly world-weary but still ready to play woman and Anna Kendrick as the young upstart. After those three, there's lots vying for the last two slots. Some pundits are writing off Julieanne Moore, but she was fantastic in A Single Man, despite a smallish role. I think Samantha Morton will prevail for the last spot as the widow in The Messenger. Yet there are lots of other great choices. Both Melanie Laurent as a revenge-seeking moviehouse operator and Diane Kruger as a popular German actress have a shot from Inglourious Basterds, but both are such unknowns too. I was quite taken by Paul Patton's performance as the teacher in Precious, and Mariah Carey, as the social worker, got quite a bit of buzz at one point. An Avatar sweep could throw in Sigourney Weaver, or even Zoe Saldana as one of the alien women (although I think that is a real longshot). If Nine had done better, it certainly has plenty of women to choose from (Penelope Cruz, Judi Dench, and Sophia Loren, for example). Who I'd really, really love to see here is Maggie Gyllenhaal as the love interest/journalist/mother from Crazy Heart. She's such an underrated talent.

What I would choose: Farmiga, Kendrick, Gyllenhaal, Patton, and Moore (take that Mo'Nique).

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avator
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

Isn't it fun that the leading contenders for Best Director this year are divorcees? Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron were married from 1989 to 1991 (she was his third wife; he's now on number five). They were DGA nominees, along with Lee Daniels, Jason Reitman and Quentin Tarantino, making them the most likely nonimees. As a new face, Lee Daniels is the most vulnerable though, which could leave room for longtime Academy favorite Clint Eastwood (Invictus) to claim the final spot. Longshots include The Coen Brothers for A Serious Man, Jane Campion for Bright Star, and Lone Scherfig for An Education.

What I would choose: Cameron, Bigelow, Reitman, Tarantino, and Tom Ford for pulling together a masterful debut with A Single Man.

Original Screenplay

(500) Days of Summer
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

Other possibles: The Hangover, Avatar, It's Complicated

Avatar is vulnerable here, since some people don't like the story (whatever, I think they just want to knock it). The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds and A Serious Man look pretty solid. Pixar movies tend to get screenplay nods, so expect to see Up here. I'm hoping (500) Days of Summer can triumph over The Hangover for the last spot.

Adapted Screenplay

An Education
District 9
Julie & Julia
Precious
Up in the Air

Other possibles: Invictus, The Road, A Single Man, The Last Station, Crazy Heart, Star Trek

Up in the Air and Precious are the shoo-ins. An Education should make the cut. District 9, which some people don't realize is an adaptation, looks like a good choice too. I hope Julie & Julia makes it, since, after all, it is an adaptation of two different books into one film, which is pretty impressive. The WGA also honored Crazy Heart and Star Trek; I give the former a better chance.

Animated Feature

Coraline
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

Documentary Feature

The Beaches of Agnes
The Cove
Food, Inc.
Living in Emergency
Under Our Skin

Foreign Film

Ajami (Israel)
A Prophet (France)
El Secreto de Sus Ojos (Argentina)
The White Ribbon (Germany)
Winter in Wartime (The Netherland)

Cinematography

Avatar
Bright Star
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
The White Ribbon

Film Editing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Up in the Air

Art Direction

Avatar
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince
Inglourious Basterds
Public Enemies
Sherlock Holmes

Costume Design

Bright Star
Inglourious Basterds
Nine
Sherlock Holmes
The Young Victoria

Makeup

District 9
The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
Star Trek

Visual Effects

Avatar
District 9
Star Trek

Sound Mixing

Avatar
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers 2

Sound Editing

Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Star Trek
Transformers 2
Up

Score

Avatar
Coco Before Chanel
The Princess and the Frog
Sherlock Holmes
Up

Song

Avatar, "I See You"
Crazy Heart, "The Weary Kind"
Nine, "Cinema Italiano"
The Princess and the Frog, "Almost There"
The Princess and the Frog, "Down in New Orleans"

Most Nominations

Avatar - 10
The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds - 8
Up in the Air - 7
District 9 - 6