Grammy Awards Predictions

The 52nd Grammy Awards are this Sunday. Here's who I think will and should win.

Album of the Year

• Beyoncé - I Am...Sasha Fierce
• Black Eyed Peas - The E.N.D.
• Dave Matthews Band - Big Whiskey and the GrooGrux King
  
• Lady GaGa - The Fame
• Taylor Swift - Fearless

Will Win: Months ago I did a study on the Grammy Awards Album of the Year category. And although I only predicted 3 of the 5 nominees, I think the principles I articulated applied (one of my mistakes was to not apply one of my principles, which is that a pop album is always nominated, and I chose the wrong rock album, but nobody was predicting DMB). What I learned was that, above all else, Grammy likes to award a veteran act with this award. Only once in the last 10 years did a hot young act beat an established veteran, in 2003 when Norah Jones beat Bruce Springsteen. Otherwise, we saw Steely Dan beat Eminem, Ray Charles beat Kanye West, U2 beat Kanye West, Herbie Hancock beat Amy Winehouse...and Kanye West. So count out hot young things Lady GaGa, who is really a better singles artist, and Taylor Swift, who is still cutting her teeth as the Grammys go. Black Eyed Peas should count their lucky stars they were nominated and have no chane of winning.

Will win: Beyonce is almost a veteran, having been in Destiny's Child over a decade ago and a solo act for 7 years now, but I think Dave Matthew Band is the true veteran here and will take the prize.

Should win: My favorite of the bunch is Beyonce's I Am...Sasha Fierce, whose third album showed tremendous growth as a vocalist while displaying an effective range of styles from dance to balladry, old school to modern pop.

Record of the Year

• Beyonce - Halo
  
• Black Eyed Peas - I Gotta Feeling
• Kings of Leon - Use Somebody
• Lady GaGa - Poker Face
• Taylor Swift - You Belong with Me

Four of these singles are also from Album of the Year nominees, which would appear to give them an upper hand. After all, the only single to win Record of the Year that wasn't from an AOTY-nominated album was Coldplay's "Clocks." So that would seem to weed out Kings of Leon's "Use Somebody"....however, during the '90s it was fairly common to award ROTY to a record that wasn't also on a nominated album, with records by Sheryl Crow, Shawn Colvin, Eric Clapton and Celine Dion taking such honors. While it's tempting to try to equate hit power with this honor, that also doesn't work, as frequently the ROTY winner is actually the lowest-charting of the bunch. That was certainly true last year for Robert Plant & Alison Krauss' "Please Read the Letter," Coldplay's "Clocks," Norah Jones' "Don't Know Why," Ray Charles "Here We Go Again," U2's "Walk On" and "Beautiful Day," and Dixie Chicks' "Not Ready to Be Nice." As foolproof as this formula appears to be, it doesn't work this year, since all 5 nominees were big hits.

Will win: The only thing left I can see is that the single that most appeals to adults seems to generally win. So out with Lady GaGa, Black Eyed Peas and Taylor Swift. So between Beyonce and Kings of Leon, I give Kings of Leon the edge, which also, even though it was a big hit, is probably the least biggest hit here (in US chart terms).

Should win: Hard to say. I really enjoyed "You Belong with Me" when it came out, and I do love Beyonce and Lady GaGa, but I would probably say that "I Gotta Feeling" by Black Eyed Peas deserves it most.

Song of the Year

• Thaddis Harrell, Beyoncé Knowles, The-Dream, and Christopher Stewart - "Single Ladies (Put a Ring on It)" performed by Beyoncé
• Kings of Leon - "Use Somebody" performed by Kings of Leon
• Lady Gaga and RedOne - "Poker Face" performed by Lady Gaga
• Hod David and Musze - Pretty Wings" performed by Maxwell
• Liz Rose & Taylor Swift - "You Belong With Me" performed by Taylor Swift

This category confounds me. About half the time it goes to the ROTY winner, and it used to be that it awarded songs that would have staying power and be recorded by other people, but apparently not anymore.

Will win: Beyonce & Company's "Single Ladies" seemed to have the most cultural value, so I give it the edge.

Should win: I do like "Singles Ladies," but I thought Taylor Swift and Liz Rose's "You Belong with Me" perfectly captured adolescent unrequited love in quite an appealing package.

Best New Artist

Keri Hilson
MGMT
Silversun Pickups
The Ting Tings
Zac Brown Band

Another head-scratcher. With Lady GaGa disqualified, it's hard to say who's really most deserving here. I don't even know who Silversun Pickups and Zac Brown Band are. Keri Hilson is fine, but didn't exactly set the world on fire.

Will and Should Win: But MGMT managed to build quite a following, deliver a great album, and a couple of good singles over the last 2 years.