Grammy Predictions

Nominees for the 51st annual Grammy Awards will be announced December 4. Unlike last year, I wasn't able to get the lists of all the songs submitted for contention in the major races, so my predictions are based more on opinion and what others (who say the lists) are saying.

Album of the Year

• Coldplay - Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends
• The Eagles - Long Road Out of Eden
• Alicia Keys - As I Am
• Lil Wayne - Tha Carter III
• Robert Plant & Alison Krauss - Raising Sand

If there's one lesson I've learned from Grammy it's that nostalgia rules. Frequently in recent years the winning album has not served to award the hottest new sound but to honor a veteran artist putting in a late-career (and sometimes final) effort. Herbie Hancock over Amy Winehouse (2007), Ray Charles over Kanye West (2004), Steely Dan over Eminem (2000). With that said, the album most likely to get the nostalgia nod this year is The Eagles' Long Road Out of Eden, which looks like a lock. If voters are feeling really nostalgic, they may also decide to honor BB King for One Kind Favor or, and its a real long shot, Al Green's Lay It Down. I'm expecting just one though, as Grammy likes to spread the wealth.

With that in mind, expect the other four albums to each come from a different genre. From rock, I expect to see Robert Plant & Alison Krauss's Raising Sand; they one the Pop Collaboration award last year for one of the album's tracks, "Gone Gone Gone." From alternative, I expect we'll see Coldplay with Viva la Vida or Death and All His Friends. Coldplay have never been nominated in this category, and this album, which produced their biggest hit ever ("Viva la Vida") looks like their best chance yet for a nod. Going with the one-album-from-a-genre theory means that the year's other potential alternative contender, Radiohead's In Rainbows, will probably be sadly overlooked. Beck's Modern Guilt would be a real longshot.

Moving on to rap and R&B, Kanye West has a been a popular choice of late, but his 808s and Heartbreaks won't qualify until next year, leaving the door open for someone else to represent the genre. Lupe Fiasco could do it for Lupe Fiasco's the Cool; he won the Urban/Alternative award last year for "Daydreamin'," but I don't think this album made a big impression. T.I.'s certainly got the hit factor going for Paper Trail, but I don't think the critics liked it enough. The best bet would seem to be Lil Wayne's Tha Carter III; the album was a big hit and got a lot of acclaim. The only downside may be that while Grammy sometimes likes to edgy (Eminem, Kanye West, etc.), the overtly sexual album may be too edgy. In R&B, I see Alicia Keys having the best chance with As I Am. Although, if BB King or Radiohead can get into the mix, I would hope Keys' album, which isn't nearly as good as her last, would be the one to be nudged out. Mariah Carey's E=MC2 didn't make a good enough impression to get a nod like her last album did, and while Ne-Yo's The Year of the Gentleman may be his best album yet, I don't see it as being Album of the Year worthy.

I don't expect to see pop or country represented this year, but there are some long shots. Leona Lewis, Duffy, and Adele were all big breakouts this year, and while one or two of them may be in the Record of the Year category, I don't see any of their albums (Spirit, Rockferry, and 19 respectively) having the chops to show up here. Country's biggest potential lies with Sugarland's Love on the Inside, but again, it doesn't seem likely.

Finally, while I think my prediction looks pretty solid, Grammy has a way of throwing a real curve ball in this category. Frequently the choice the critics seem to think will surely be there is missing (In 2006 it was Bob Dylan's The Modern Times, last year it was the Boss's Magic), replaced by something odd like Vince Gill or Gnarls Barkley.

Record of the Year

• Coldplay - Viva la Vida
• Estelle Featuring Kanye West - American Boy
• Leona Lewis - Bleeding Love
• M.I.A. - Paper Planes
• Timbaland Featuring OneRepublic - Apologize

Usually there is some overlap between record and album of the year, and the act most likely to achieve that distinction this year is Coldplay. Not only was their album celebrated, it's title track, "Viva La Vida" was a renowned smash hit that gave the band their first #1 hit in both the US and the UK. It was as inescapable during the summer as another British Act, Leona Lewis, was in the spring with her massive number one hit "Bleeding Love." Both are the surest bets to get nods here this year. In a year where British acts reclaimed their competitiveness on the American charts, one more--Estelle--could also get a nod, for her Kanye West-collaboration "American Boy." In slot number four, I'm expecting to see Timbaland and OneRepublic's "Apologize," another massive hit that also achieved some acclaim.

The last one then is a tough one. If the Brit love continues it could go to Duffy for "Mercy" or even Adele for "Chasing Pavements," but really these songs did not have much impact in the US beyond VH1. One of the year's big pop hits could be a contender--Jordin Sparks and Chris Brown's "No Air," Madonna and Justin Timberlake's "4 Minutes," Sara Bareilles' "Love Song," Rihanna's "Take a Bow," or Katy Perry's "I Kissed a Girl." For various reasons though, I don't think it will be any of these. No one seems to be mentioning Kid Rock's clever reworking of "Werewolves of London" and "Sweet Home Alabama" into "All Summer Long,"--perhaps it wasn't submitted?

Another way to go could be to consider songs from the album of the year contenders. Robert Plant & Alison Krauss's "Please Read the Letter" is a great song, and it could be in here. It should have a better chance than The Eagles' "Busy Being Fabulous," which didn't have much impact. Alicia Keys's album's big hit, "No One," was in contention last year, so that album can only offer "Like You'll Never See Me Again," which isn't up to par. Actually I'm thinking the last slot will go to a hip-hop song. Lil Wayne's "Lollipop?" (too suggestive). Kanye West's "Love Lockdown?" (not really hip-hop). No, I think it will to critics' darling M.I.A., who scored her first popular hit with "Paper Planes."

Best New Artist

• Duffy
• Estelle
• Lady Antebellum
• Leona Lewis
• OneRepublic

The British ladies will be leading this category for sure this year, with Leona Lewis sure to get a nod, followed by likely choices Estelle and Duffy. Less likely but still possible is a spot for Adele. American ladies Katy Perry and Sara Bareilles are possibilities, but I don't think they're held in as high of esteem. I think the other two spots will go to groups. Perhaps Jonas Brothers, but probably too "teen oriented." Perhaps The Ting Tings, but not important enough. Best chance goes to OneRepublic, if only because the band includes Ryan Tedder, who has become a potent force in rock music (arguably just he should be nominated). Since I don't see country getting a nod in the album or record categories, I expect Lady Antebellum to get a new artist nomination.