Saturday, November 29, 2008

Grammy Predictions - Pop

Pop Female
  • Sara Bareilles - Love Song
  • Natasha Bedingfield - Pocketful of Sunshine
  • Duffy - Mercy
  • Leona Lewis - Bleeding Love
  • Pink - So What
As you'd expect, this is fiercely competitive. The only sure thing I see is Leona Lewis for "Bleeding Love," for the year's biggest pop hit by anyone--man, woman, group, meerkat. I also think Natasha Bedingfield could make it in for "Pocketful of Sunshine," despite its overexposure. I'm giving Duffy's "Mercy" the edge over Adele's "Chasing Pavements," although that could easily go the other way. For something with a harder edge Katy Perry's "I Kissed a Girl" could be a possibility, but could be shunned as a novelty. Instead I'm going with Pink and "So What," one of her best singles ever. For something with that "singer-songwriter" bent, Sheryl Crow could get in with "Love Is Free" or Sarah McLachlan with "You Want Me 2," but neither feel as right as Sara Bareilles's "Love Song," which was a much bigger hit. Still, I couldn't find room for Rihanna's "Take a Bow"--a massive hit, Beyonce's "If I Were a Boy," which sounds like a strong contender, Mariah Carey's "Bye Bye"--a weak song, but she's been nominated here eight times before, or Christina Aguilera's "Keeps Gettin' Better," a popular artist and a respected song despite its poor chart performance.

Pop Male
  • Kid Rock - All Summer Long
  • John Mayer - Say
  • Paul McCartney - That Was Me
  • Jason Mraz - I'm Yours
  • Ne-Yo - Closer
As usual, this isn't nearly as competitive as the female category, since male pop artists just aren't the hitmakers the ladies are. In some ways, this makes it harder to predict, since while there are fewer potential nominees there are also fewer standouts. I think John Mayer's "Say" is an easy pick--Grammy loves him, and I'd expect Jason Mraz "I'm Yours" to be a shoo-in too. Kid Rock's "All Summer Long" was a respectable hit that cleverly incorporated two classic rock songs, which should get some attention. With those three out of the way I expect one slot to go to someone young and hip and the other to somehow who is, well, not. For the young one, Jesse McCartney is a slight potential for "Leavin;" better would be Chris Brown for "With You," but I think the strongest contender is Ne-Yo with "Closer." For the veteran, Neil Diamond is an option for "Pretty Amazing Grace," but I think Paul McCartney has a better chance with "That Was Me." Other potential contenders: Gavin Rossdale ("Love Remains the Same"), Josh Groban ("Awake"), and John Johnson ("If I Had Eyes"). Finally, a potential spoiler, Kanye West's "Love Lockdown"--not sure how Grammy will react to his new sound.

Pop Group
  • Coldplay - Viva La Vida
  • The Eagles - Waiting in the Weeds
  • Glen Hansard And Marketa Irglova - When Your Mind's Made Up
  • OneRepublic - Apologize
  • The Ting Tings - Shut Up and Let Me Go
Coldplay was apparently submitted in the pop category, so I think it will make it in. OneRepublic should appear as well--I'd thought it would be for "Stop and Stare," but apparently they put up "Apologize" here instead (which I thought would be in the collaboration category, go figure). Then there's The Eagles, which I think will make it in, and apparently submitted "Waiting in the Weeds" and not "Busy Being Fabulous," which is the ROTY contender. Because it isn't a busy year for this category, I'm going to go out on a limb for my last two predictions and go with Glen Hansard And Marketa Irglova's "When Your Mind's Made Up," a beautiful song from their musical Once, and The Ting Ting's "Shut Up and Let Me Go." Other potential nominees are Grammy favorite Maroon 5 with "Won't Go Home Without You," The Pussycat Dolls for "When I Grow Up," and Flobots with their interesting single, "Handlebars."

Pop Collaboration
  • Alicia Keys & John Mayer - Lessons Learned
  • Madonna & Justin Timberlake - 4 Minutes
  • Maroon5 & Rihanna - If I Never See Your Face Again
  • Robert Plant & Alison Krauss - Rich Woman
  • Jordin Sparks & Chris Brown - No Air
This seems like a pretty easy category to predict this year. Alicia Keys & John Mayer is a no-brainer, since Grammy worships both of them. Robert Plant & Alison Krauss are a shoo-in, although it's interesting they submitted "Rich Woman" over "Please Read the Letter." Madonna had her most electric single in years when she teamed up with Justin Timberlake on "4 Minutes," so it should make it in. Jordin Sparks & Chris Brown's "No Air" was a beautiful pop ballad and a major hit. Last spot could go to John Legend & Corinne Bailey Rae--both prior Grammy nominees--for their cover of Black Eyed Peas' "Where Is The Love," or the nostalgia factor could work for Natalie Cole and Nat King Cole's "Walkin' My Baby Back Home." But I'm going with Maroon 5 and Rihanna for "If I Never See Your Face Again," since I think it's possible their individual songs will get passed over.

Pop Album
  • Adele - 19
  • Duffy - Rockferry
  • The Eagles - Long Road Out Of Eden
  • Leona Lewis - Spirit
  • Sheryl Crow - Detours
Finally, the pop album category. The Eagles, since they will likely be in AOTY, will definitely appear here. I think Duffy and Sheryl Crow are pretty likely nominees too. Leona Lewis's Spirit is a strong contender too, despite mixed reviews. Adele, whom I think will get overlooked in the general categories and pushed out of pop female has a better chance here, since the field isn't so crowded. Also in the running: Madonna's Hard Candy, Jack Johnson's Sleep Through the Static, and OneRepublic's Dreaming Out Loud (if it was submitted, I'm not sure).


J.Mensah said...

why so sure eagles will get the best album award?

ww_adh said...

Buzz and the nostalgia factor. The Eagles' Greatest Hits is the best-selling album of all time in the US. They've never won, and this album got a lot of attention from the right kind of people.