Saturday, November 26, 2005

UK Christmas #1: Update

Oddsmakers have readjusted their bet for UK Christmas #1. With the announcement that this year's winner of The X Factor will release his/her/their single the week of Christmas, whatever artist and song this turns out to be is now favored for #1. Westlife and Diana Ross, the early favorite, is now third, and may slip further since it was just announced that the track would be released a week earlier (12/12 instead of 12/19). Here is William Hill's top 10 best odds for Christmas #1 from Friday:

01 "X-Factor" winner - title tba (2/5)
02 Nizlopi "JCB Song" (9/2)
03 Westlife/Diana Ross "When You Tell Me..." (9/1)
04 Girls Aloud "See the Day" (25/1)
05 Keedie + England Cricket Team "Jerusalem" (10/1)
06 McFly "Ultraviolet / Ballad of Paul K" (50/1)
07 The Choirboys "Tears In Heaven" (12/1)
08 Robbie Williams "Advertising Space" (20/1)
09 Mariah Carey "Don't Forget About Us" (50/1)
10 Crazy Frog "Jingle Bells" (20/1)

My reaction: This is already out of date, and doesn't appear to reflect the updated new release schedule. Eminem's upcoming single, "When I'm Gone," was recently moved to 12/19, making it a serious contender for Christmas #1. Also, Westlife & Diana Ross were just pushed up to 12/12, lowering their chances. Also, I think people are putting too much stock in The X Factor. Steve Brookstein, last year's winner, had his single released a couple of weeks after Christmas, presumably to steer clear of Band Aid 20 and allow him a decent shot at #1. Also, remember when Pop Idol 2 released its Christmas single? It was the "guaranteed" #1, but only made #5.

Oddschecker posts updated odds from various betting houses such as William Hill and Ladbrokes.

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