Tuesday, November 29, 2005

Grammy Nominee Predictions

The 2005 Grammy Award nominations (handed out in February 2006) will be announced December 8. Eligible albums for Album of the Year are those released between 10/1/04 and 9/30/05. I've found predicting Grammies to be much harder than predicting Oscars or Emmies, given that the Grammies sometimes go conserative, sometimes more mainstream. Last year, the Album of the Year nominees appeared to roughly represent the favorite albums in each of the genre categories (i.e. Pop, R&B, Hip-Hop, Rock, Alternative, etc.), so I based my prediction somewhat on that.

Here's my prediction for Album of the Year:

1. Mariah Carey The Emancipation of Mimi (Gets the R&B slot, as the biggest R&B album of the year, also one of the year's bestsellers and a comeback album for an industry giant. Nominated in this category in 1995 for Daydream and in 1990 for Mariah Carey)

2. Coldplay X&Y (Gets the alternative slot. Coldplay's A Rush of Blood to the Head wasn't nominated in 2002, and this was a big year for them)

3. Gwen Stefani Love. Angel. Music. Baby. (The pop slot. A close call with Kelly Clarkson, but Stefani was seen as having more edge and was favored by Critics, even though Clarkson sold more.)

4. U2 How to Dismantle an Atomic Bomb (The rock slot. It's a bit old at this point, but still qualifies. U2 is a Grammy favorite, and critics loved this album. Nominated in this category in 2001 for All That You Can't Leave Behind, in 1992 for Achtung Baby; won the award in 1987 for The Joshua Tree.)

5. Kanye West Late Registration (The Hip-hop slot. Critics and the public liked this as much as his first album, which was nominated last year. Better still, this album produced a bigger hit in "Gold Digger," a likely Record of the Year nominee.)

Other possibilities:

Kelly Clarkson Breakaway (She was very popular in 2005, but hasn't yet earned enough critical praise for a nomination. Definitely a shoo-in though for a Record of the Year nomination for "Since U Been Gone")

Missy Elliot The Cookbook (Was nominated in '03, but that album was more popular and received greater critical praise. "Lose Control" could be a Record of the Year contender.)

Fall Out Boy From Under the Cork (Probably not, but it's mainstream and popular enough to get some notice.)

50 Cent The Massacre (He wasn't nominated in 2003, but it's still a possibility.)

Gorillaz Demon Days (A critical favorite that finally got some notice after "Feel Good Inc." became a big hit, but I still see Coldplay getting the alternative nod.)

Jack Johnson In Between Dreams (Adult pop stuff like Norah Jones and Bruce Springsteen fared well in the early part of the decade, although not as much the last couple of years. This wasn't a big album, but it's still a possibility.)

Rob Thomas ...Something to Be (Again, like Jack Johnson, if Grammy is feeling more conservative, it could go his way, but this album wasn't as big as expected.)

Weezer Make Believe
White Stripes Get Behind Me Satan (Either one could take Coldplay's slot as the alternative nominee if Grammy passes over Coldplay again. White Stripes' Elephant was nominated before, but this album wasn't as strong.)

Even more difficult to predict are the nominees for Record of the Year, since there are so many possibilities. Often, most most of nominees are from albums nominated in the Album of the Year category, but of course, this is not always the case. Nominees are usually (but again, not always) big hits.

My prediction for Record of the Year:

"We Belong Together" - Mariah Carey

"Since U Been Gone" - Kelly Clarkson

"Boulevard of Broken Dreams" - Green Day

"Hollaback Girl" - Gwen Stefani

"Gold Digger" - Kanye West Featuring Jamie Foxx

I went the big hit route with my prediction, but there are usually songs nominated that aren't big hits (and for the last five years, the song that charted the lowest has won). So other possibilities:

"Don't Lie" - Black Eyed Peas
"Speed of Sound" - Coldplay
"Lose Control" - Missy Elliot Featuring Ciara
"Karma" - Alicia Keys
"Live Like You Were Dying" - Tim McGraw
"Over and Over" - Nelly Featuring Tim McGraw
"Rich Girl" - Gwen Stefani Featuring Eve
"Lonely No More" - Rob Thomas
"Vertigo" - U2
"Beverly Hills" - Weezer

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