Mercury Prize Predictions

The Mercury Prize nominees list comes out tomorrow. Who will be nominated? While there's always some pretty unusual choices (Anyone know who Laura Marling, Basquiat Strings or Seth Lakeman are?), there's generally some popular ones too. Last year's shortlist included #1 albums from Adele, Radiohead, and Last Shadow Puppets, and the album that ultimately won the Album of the Year Grammy (Robert Plant & Alison Krauss's Raising Sand), was also in the mix.

Here's some (probably way off) predictions:

Most likely to be nominated:

La Roux - La Roux. La Roux is the biggest breakout pop act of the year, and the album has gotten a fair share of acclaim. Plus Goldfrapp, Britain's last major she-voice he-twiddler pop act was nominated for their 2000 debut Felt Mountain. Why they'll be nominated: Adele, Joss Stone, and Amy Winehouse all saw their debuts nominated. Why they won't: Duffy, Dido, and Lily Allen did not.

Florence and the Machine - Lungs. Another hot breakout, with enough quirkiness to make this an attractive choice. Why they will: Offbeat female singers like Bat For Lashes, Amy Winehouse, and Isobel Campbell have done well here. Why they won't: Can't really think of a reason, this should be a shoo in.

Kasabian - West Ryder Lunatic Asylum. Sure this is the band's third album, but it's elevated the band to a new commercial and critical peak, something the Mercury has rewarded in the past (Elbow, British Sea Power, Snow Patrol). Why they will: This would seem like just the right popular rock album to go with. Why they won't: Again, looks like a pretty good choice, given the history.

Doves - Kingdom of Rust. Why they will: They were nominated before and everybody loves this album. Why they won't: They were nominated before, and it was awhile ago.


In the running:

Lily Allen - It's Not Me, It's You. Lily Allen's second album has already proven itself a hitmaker (#1 single "The Fear") and received a good deal of acclaim. Why she'll be nominated: Her 2006 debut was overlooked. Why she won't: Because her debut was not, and back then she was seen as more indie and less mainstream than she is now.

White Lies - To Lose My Life. Another hot breakout act. Why the'll be nominated: The View, Editors and Franz Ferdinand all saw their debut albums nominated. Why they won't: Critical response was lukewarm, and no one likes them as much as The View, Editors or Franz Ferdinand.

V.V. Brown - Traveling Like the Light. Why she will: Jamelia and Estelle were nominated and her music is in their vein. Why she won't: Jamelia and Estelle were both more popular.

Little Boots - Hands. Why she will: She's another big breakout and electro-leaning quirky pop has performed well (Neon Neon, Hot Chip). Why she won't: If it comes down to her or La Roux, La Roux has the critical and commercial edge (Adele got it over Duffy last year, and had only one of those).


Probably not:

Alesha Dixon - The Alesha Show. Too mainstream and while critics liked it, they didn't love it.

Franz Ferdinand - Tonight. Although their awesome debut won this award in 2004, its worthy follow-up did not, and Tonight isn't nearly as good as either of those were.

The Script - The Script. Not enough street cred, even with the urban pretensions.

Kings of Leon - Only by the Night. Despite Britain's love affair with this album, Kings of Leon are an American band, and therefore not eligible.

Take That - Circus. Please. They wouldn't dare.