2009 Oscar Nominees - Technical and other categories predictions

The Oscar nominees for 2008 films will be announced January 22. Here are my predictions for the 13 of the 16 minor categories (all but the shorts, which I have no idea about. Major categories will follow with more in-depth discussion):

Cinematography

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

Millionaire and gorgeous With the relative lack of "sumptuous" period pieces this year, this is much easier than usual. These were the American Society of Cinematographers' picks, and I don't see why Oscar would stray from that. All these films were visually stunning, particularly the colorful SlumdogBenjamin Button, which I'm not a big fan of, but I won't deny it wasn't a beautiful film. Roger Deakins, a double nominee last year for No Country for Old Men and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, looks likely to again be a double nominee this year for Revolutionary Road and The Reader, the latter on which he shared duties with Chris Menges. Deakins has been nominated for this award seven times without a win.

Art Direction

Changeing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

Benjamin Button and Slumdog again are the leaders here, both of which feature era-spanning and international appeal. Australia and The Reader would seem like candidates, but both were ignored by the Art Directors' Guild. However, that guild did honor Clint Eastwood's Changeling, which is unlikely to get many other nods, as well as Milk, which did an excellent job of recreating 1970s San Francisco. The Dark Knight should also get in for its fine balance of urban reality and fantasy.

Costume Design

Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Sex and the City
Slumdog Millionaire

Like the Art Directors, the Constume Designers guild also divides its nominees into period, contemporary and fantasy categories, giving hints about who will make it to Oscar, but not as clear a picture as some other guilds. As usual, I expect the lavish period pieces to mostly reign, so in goes Changeling, Benajmin Button, and the Duchess. The less lavish period pieces Milk and Revolutionary Road could have a shot, but I think they may get squeezed out by the Indian costuming of Slumdog Millionaire and Patricia Field's contemporary fashion work for Sex and the City, where like in 2006's The Devil Wears Prada (also costumed by Field) fashion is such a crucial element of the film. I'm expecting superhero and fantasy films like The Dark Knight, Iron Man, and The Chronicles of Narnia to be shut out.

Film Editing

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire

The American Cinema Editors picked these five films, which also happen to be the best picture frontrunners. If the film editing nominees match the best nominees exactly, it will be the first time that's happened since 2002.

Foreign Film

The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
The Departures (Japan)
Everlasting Moments (Sweden)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)

With Italy's Gommorah out, Israel's animated documentary Waltz with Bashir would appear to be the frontrunner, with France's The Class (this year's Cannes Palm d'Or winner) close behind. I don't know much about the rest of the nine qualifying films, but action-packed The Baader Meinhof Complex looks interesting and I've heard it should be considered a top contender. I've also heard The Departures is supposed to be excellent. While I've heard the Austrian film Revanche talked about, I'm going with Sweden's Everlasting Moments as my fifth pick.

Score

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Andre Desplat)
The Dark Knight (Hans Zimmer and James Newton Howard)
Revolutionary Road (Thomas Newman)
Slumdog Millionaire (A.R. Rahman)
Wall-E (Thomas Newman)

I love film scores, but only two really stood out to be this year: Andre Desplat's gorgeous and appropriately epic work for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Thomas Newman's Revolutionary Road (which reminded me a bit of his previous scores for Scent of a Woman and American Beauty, which I both liked). Desplat was nominated two years ago for The Queen and I think should have also been nominated for The Painted Veil. I don't really remember the Wall-E score, but I hear it's got a lot of buzz to give Newman a second nod this year. Slumdog Millionaire was a surprisingly musical movie, so it should get in, as should The Dark Knight from Hans Zimmer and James Newton Howard, both 7-time nominees. John Williams has some buzz for Indiana Jones 4, but I'm thinking it won't make it, since this is hardly new territory for him.

Song

"I Thought I Lost You" Bolt
"Jai Ho" Slumdog Millionaire
"O Saya" Slumdog Millionaire
"Down to Earth" Wall-E
"The Wrestler" The Wrestler

In addition to being a great story and a visual feast, Slumdog Millionaire had great music--both a memorable score and great songs, so I expect two of them to show up here: "Jai Ho," the energetic number used during the very memorable end credits dance sequence, and "O Saya," another good song that includes M.I.A. Bruce Springsteen's "The Wrestler" is a great song that fits the mood of the movie perfectly. Disney is generally strong, so I expect Peter Gariel's "Down to Earth" from Wall-E to be in. The fifth pick is hard. "Once in a Lifetime" from Cadillac Records may be disqualified, since apparently it was written before the film. "Gran Torino" is an option, although I don't think it has a lot of support. "Rock Me Sexy Jesus" from Hamlet 2 would certainly be an irreverent choice. I expect Miley Cyrus and John Travolta's "I Thought I Lost You" from Bolt will be in the last spot.

Documentary Feature

Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water

Two of the documentaries I saw this year, "American Teen" and "Religulous," didn't make the longlist, so don't look for them to be nominated. The third, "Man on Wire," is this year's documentary frontrunner. Timely and political "Trouble the Water" and "I.O.U.S.A." should make the list. For my other two picks I'm going with the Antarctic "Encounters at the End of the World" and "Standard Operating Procedure" over "Made in America" and the film about Philip Glass ("Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts").

Animated Feature

Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir

Waltz with Bashir looks interesting, but Wall-E is still the obvious frontrunner here. I'm going with Kung Fu Panda over Bolt for the third slot.

Sound

The sound awards tend to be a mix of the sweeping dramas and big action films (with more emphasis on the latter for the editing category).

Mixing:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E

Editing:

The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
Wall-E

Visual Effects

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man

This seems pretty obvious when you look at the list of seven finalists (which did not include Indiana Jones 4). The other four films were Australia, Hellboy 2, Journey to the Center of the Earth, and The Mummy. I saw Iron Man last night and I liked it. Benjamin Button will probably win this one, as well as Makeup, for the combined achievement of aging/de-aging Brad Pitt and Cate Blanchett.

Makeup

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Tropic Thunder

The Reader and Synechdoche New York both made the final seven for their aging work, but Benjamin Button did it better. While The Dark Knight's Joker wasn't technically challenging, it was very effective and a new take on the character. Tropic Thunder transformed both Tom Cruise and Robert Downey Jr. (or rather Robert Downey Jr.'s character).

In summary:

8 - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
8 - The Dark Knight
8 - Slumdog Millionaire
5 - Wall-E
3 - Iron Man
2 - Changeling
2 - Milk
2 - Revolutionary Road
2 - Waltz with Bashir
1 - Bolt
1 - The Duchess
1 - Frost/Nixon
1 - Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skill
1 - Kung Fu Panda
1 - Quantum of Solace
1 - The Reader
1 - Sex and the City
1 - Tropic of Thunder
1 - The Wrestler