Grammy prediction: Record of the Year

Alicia Keys - No One

Rihanna Featuring Jay-Z - Umbrella

Bruce Springsteen - Radio Nowhere

Carrie Underwood - Before He Cheats

Amy Winehouse - Rehab



Carrie Underwood has to be a lock here. She was the darling at the last Grammys, and "Before He Cheats" was a massive crossover hit. There are generally several record nods that come from nominated albums, so I expect Amy Winehouse's "Rehab" to get a nod here, and I think Bruce Springsteen will probably pull one out too for "Radio Nowhere." My fourth slot goes to Rihanna/Jay-Z's "Umbrella." Yes, I know that the big singer/rapper collaborations last year--"Promiscuous" and "Hips Don't Lie"--were shut out here, but I think "Umbrella's" status as the year's biggest pop/R&B hit will trump that. Plus, such collaborations have been nominated in prior years, such as "Crazy in Love" and "Dilemma."

The fifth slot, as usual, is the toughest one. Although we already have three ladies in the mix, I'm willing to bet there will be a fourth, but the competition here is fierce. Beyoncé scored a major hit with "Irreplaceable," but it's so old by now, is anyone still interested? Fergie also had the summer's other major pop hit, "Big Girls Don't Cry, but I think this will fall victim to the pop curse of "Since U Been Gone" and "Unwritten." The lady I'm betting on is proven Grammy darling Alicia Keys, who's perfectly timed "No One" got in just under the close of the eligibility period (her album, however, did not), is still growing in interest in time to be the biggest current hit among the nominees, and may become her biggest hit ever.

Keys can be divisive though, so there is still room for some other cuts. Timbaland had two major hits this year with "Give It To Me" and "The Way I Are," but if the big (and better) singles he produced last year for Justin Timberlake ("Sexyback") and Nelly Furtado ("Promiscuous"), couldn't make the cut, then why would these? So I likewise don't expect to see this year's hits from them, Justin's "What Goes Around...Comes Around" or Nelly's "Say It Right." Surprise nominations could happen for Feist's "1234" or Lily Allen's "Smile," although I think Winehouse is going to get the "outsider" female nod, so these may instead show up in the female pop category. If his album gets a nod, Paul McCartney could also send up his single "Dance Tonight," but it wasn't a major hit. Maroon 5's "Makes Me Wonder" has a shot, but again, why weren't they nominated for "She Will Be Loved" or "This Love" 3 years ago? Gwen Stefani and Akon had a big hit with "The Sweet Escape," but that song's no "Hollaback Girl," and her buzz really dimmed down this year. Finally, I do hope the overplayed/cringe-inducing "Hey There Delilah" by Plain White T's and "Beautiful Girls" by Sean Kingston don't make the cut.

Don't look for Kanye West's "Stronger." This would have been an easy shoo-in, but was inexplicably not submitted for consideration. Instead they put up second single "The Good Life," but I doubt that's a contender. Avril Lavigne's "Girlfriend" was also not submitted, although I'm guessing that was due to the controversy about whether part of it was stolen from an older song. Robin Thicke's "Lost Without U" also wasn't on the list, except for a live version--perhaps it was too old? Also not in contetion: Timbaland/OneRepublic's "Apologize," Britney's "Gimme More," Daughtry's "Home," and Akon's "Dont Matter."