Grammy Nominations Prodictions

The 2010 Grammy Award nominations will be announced next week (Dec. 2). So it's time to make some predictions! I always have so much fun trying to guess who will be nominated. So much so that a few weeks ago, I wrote this post analyzing factors for predicting the Album of the Year category. Let's see whether I can put my own advice to work (and next week, how good it really was).

Album of the Year:

• Beyoncé - I Am...Sasha Fierce
• Lady GaGa - The Fame
• Maxwell - BLACKsummers'night
• Taylor Swift - Fearless
• U2 - No Line on the Horizon

It's a harder than usual year for AOTY, as there weren't a lot of standout albums (further signs of the death of the album?). Leading the charge is young country star Taylor Swift's Fearless, which is the safest bet to get a nomination this year. After that, it actually gets kind of tricky. Although it was a great year for pop music, the year's biggest pop albums will actually be considered in othe genres, so I'm not including one in my prediction (a bold move, given that pop is AOTY's favorite genre). So into the mix goes Beyoncé's contemporary R&B album I Am...Sasha Fierce. Beyoncé has never been nominated in this category, and I see the consistently good and hit-filled Sasha Fierce as her best shot yet. Also, I expect Lady GaGa's The Fame to grab a nod, becoming the first electronic album to do so (like Fearless and Sasha Fierce, this is really a "pop" album, but isn't competing in that category). Because R&B usually gets a nod, I expect Maxwell's BLACKsummers'night to get a slot too. I was tempted not to include a rock album in my prediction, as it was a rather wan year for rock, but that would go against my advice to always include a rock album, so I was swayed to include perennial Grammy favorite U2 with their No Line on the Horizon.

Other than Taylor Swift, there really aren't any sure things this year. If a pop album does manage to make the cut, I expect it would be Black Eyed Peas' The E.N.D.; however, this album did better as a source for hit singles than as an acclaimed album. There's a slight chance the pop album could be Kanye West's 808s and Heartbreak, but his acclaim has gradually been eroding, and this album divided critics and fans alike, so I expect it will be his first album not to get an AOTY nod (ooh...he will be so MAD!). I loved Whitney Houston's I Look to You, but the album underperformed, and I expect Maxwell to get more love from the R&B segment. Because Fearless may be viewed more as a pop album, there is a chance that a second country album could appear, which would likely be George Strait's Twang, but two country albums have never been nominated together in this category, so it's really unlikely. If the rock slot doesn't go to U2, it could go to Green Day's 21st Century Breakdown, but just like U2, their album wasn't as well received as their last, the 2004 AOTY-nominated American Idiot. Bruce Springsteen deserves at least a mention for Working on a Dream, but if Magic couldn't get nominated in 2007, why would this newer, lesser album? It was such a weak year for rap, that there's not even an album worth mentioning. An alternative choice could be The Yeah Yeah Yeah's It's Blitz or Phoenix's Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix, but I would consider either very very unlikely. Finally, Bob Dylan could be spoiler here for Together Through Life. He's an old Grammy favorite, and it could make up for the 2006 snub of The Modern Times.

Don't look for: Kings of Leon (released too early), Jay-Z (released too late) or Britney Spears (get real).

Record of the Year:

• Black Eyed Peas - I Gotta Feeling
• Kings of Leon - Use Somebody
• Lady GaGa - Poker Face
• Maxwell - Pretty Wings
• Taylor Swift - You Belong with Me

In comparison to AOTY, ROTY seems really obvious to me this year. In fact, if any one of the five songs listed above doesn't appear, I think it will be a big surprise. Surely Black Eyed Peas', "I Gotta Feeling," the year's biggest hit, is a shoo-in, as is Lady GaGa's "Poker Face" as the best-performing of The Fame's multiple hits. Since Kings of Leon's album doesn't qualify for AOTY, I expect they'll get love for their massive rock/pop crossover hit "Use Somebody." Finally, it's often that ROTY nominees are those from AOTY nominees, so I expect Maxwell and Taylor Swift to make the cut with their respective hits "Pretty Wings" and "You Belong with Me."

I think Beyonce would have had a good shot at this had she put up "Single Ladies," but she instead submitted both "If I Were a Boy" and "Halo," which could cancel each other out. Further hurting "Halo's" chances is the fact that Kelly Clarkson submitted "Already Gone," which is widely perceived as a "Halo" clone (credit Ryan Tedder for that--both songs are often considered "Bleeding Love" clones too). If a rock song sneaks in there it could be Green Day's "21 Guns" or U2's "I'll Go Crazy If I Don't Go Crazy Tonight," but I wouldn't count on either, since they weren't big hits. Katy Perry's "Hot N Cold" was another big hit for her, but it wasn't as much a standout as "I Kissed a Girl," which didn't get nominated last year. Other longshots: Jay-Z's "Run This Town," MGMT's "Kids," Owl City's "Fireflies," and Whitney Houston's "I Didn't Know My Own Strength."

Not submitted for consideration: Single Ladies, My Life Would Suck Without You

Song of the Year:

• Adele - Hometown Glory (Adele)
• Billie Joe Armstrong - 21 Guns (Green Day)
• Caleb Followill, Jared Followill, Matthew Followill & Nathan Followill - Use Somebody (Kings of Leon)
• Beyoncé Knowles, Christopher Stewart, Terius Nash, and Kuk Harrell - Single Ladies (Beyoncé)
• Maxwell and Hod David - Pretty Wings (Maxwell)

The songwriters award is hard to predict. Usually there's some overlap with record of the year (generally favoring the rock or adult pop nominees), so I threw in Maxwell and Kings of Leon, thinking that the poppier songs by Black Eyed Peas, Taylor Swift and Lady GaGa are unlikely to also score writing nods (although of those, I think Taylor Swift would have the best shot). Adele's "Hometown Glory" is a hauntingly beautiful song, and because I don't think Green Day's "21 Guns" will make ROTY, I think it has a better shot here. Beyoncé Knowles, Christopher Stewart, Terius Nash, and Kuk Harrell's "Single Ladies" (Beyoncé) wasn't submitted for ROTY, but was for SOTY, so I think it will make the list. Dianne Warren's "I Didn't Know My Own Strength" (Whitney Houston) is a lovely song, but I found some if its lyrical phrasing awkward (particularly the chorus), and it wasn't a hit. Singer-songwriter Diane Birch's "Nothing But a Miracle" could get a shot, if Grammy is willing to recognize an under-the-radar newcomer. A longshot choice would be Jessi Alexander and Jon Mabe for "The Climb" (Miley Cyrus), but given the recording artist's lack of critical credibility, I think it's quite unlikely.

Best New Artist:

• Diane Birch
• Bon Iver
• Laura Izibor
• MGMT
• Zac Brown Band

Not exactly the hottest Best New Artist slate. Lady GaGa was the year's biggest new artist, but because "Just Dance" was nominated last year, she's not eligible. Such a challenge to determine when someone is "new" since, after all, all of these people have been performing and recording for years up to now (calling it "breakthrough" would be more accurate). Other possibles: Keri Hilson, Owl City, The Script, and The Ting Tings.

Pop Vocal Female Performance

• Adele - Hometown Glory
• Beyonce - Halo
• Whitney Houston - I Didn't Know My Own Strength
• Katy Perry - Waking Up in Vegas
• Taylor Swift - You Belong with Me
• (If 6 nominees) Pink - Sober

The male and female pop vocal categories remind me of the Emmy Awards--once you get nominated, you tend to get nominated again and again. In the last decade, Britney Spears and Pink have been nominated 3 times each with no wins, so both could be up, but competition this year is tight, so I'm actually not predicting either. However, Adele, who won last year, and Katy Perry, who was nominated, look like strong choices. Beyonce's "Halo," which could get an ROTY nominee, should be a shoo-in here, as is Taylor Swift's "You Belong with Me," which I think will get ROTY. Even though it wasn't a hit, I imagine Grammy voters couldn't resist putting up 3-time winner and 6-time nominee Whitney Houston for "I Didn't Know My Own Strength." Kelly Clarkson's "Already Gone" could be in, but I give similar "Halo" the better shot. This category is generally dominated by big names, but if a lesser known is given a shot, it could mean a nod for Regina Spektor or Diane Birch.

Pop Vocal Male Performance:

• Maxwell - Love You
• Seal - If You Don't Know Me By Now
• Rob Thomas - Her Diamonds
• James Taylor - Wasn't That a Mighty Storm
• Kanye West - Heartless

Nothing underscores the fact that female pop stars are bigger than their male counterparts than by comparing the Grammy award categories. It's hard to predict the females because there are so many good choices. It's hard to predict the males since there are so few. And no John Mayer this year (that's always an easy call, he's been nominated 5 times and won 4). I think Kanye West's "Heartless" should have a good shot as the biggest hit of the likely nominees. James Taylor is a perennial favorite, so I think he'll be in. Seal's been nominated 3 times this decade, so look for him too, as well as boring ol' Rob Thomas. As long as this is shaping up to be a major snooze fest, let's also throw out Jason Mraz's "Make It Mine" and Stevie Wonder's "All About Love Again," and hope that the more interesting choice, Maxwell's "Love You," is the one that gets in.

Pop Duo/Group with Vocal:

• 3Oh!3 - Don't Trust Me
• The All-American Rejects - Gives You Hell
• Black Eyed Peas - I Gotta Feeling
• The Fray - Never Say Never
• The Pussycat Dolls - I Hate This Part

Kind of boring category this year, with Black Eyed Peas sure to win. Bon Jovi's "We Weren't Born to Follow" is also a possibility. Longshots include Keane's "The Lovers Are Losing" and The Script's "The Man Who Can't Be Moved."

Pop Vocal Album:

• Black Eyed Peas - The E.N.D.
• Kelly Clarkson - All I Ever Wanted
• Pink - Funhouse
• Rob Thomas - Cradlesong
• Kanye West - 808s and Heartbreak

I expect Kanye West and Black Eyed Peas, who are possible for AOTY, to be the frontrunners here this year. There's generally several adult pop nominees, so Rob Thomas's Cradlesong will probably get a nod. I'll give the last two slots to the big female contenders, Pink and prior winner Kelly Clarkson. Seal, Diane Birch and Regina Spektor and longshots.

Other predictions, without commentary

Dance recording:

Black Eyed Peas - Boom Boom Pow
Cascada - Evacuate the Dancefloor
David Guetta & Kelly Rowland - When Love Takes Over
Lady Gaga - Poker Face
Britney Spears - Womanizer

Electronic album:

The Crystal Method - Divided by Night
Lady GaGa - The Fame
David Guetta - One Love
Pet Shop Boys - Yes
Royksopp - Junior

Rock album:

Dave Matthews Band - Big Whiskey and the Groo Grux King
Green Day - 21st Century Breakdown
Guns N Roses - Chinese Democracy
Bruce Springsteen - Working on a Dream
U2 - No Line on the Horizon

Alternative album:

Animal Collective - Merriweather Post Pavillion
Bjork - Voltaic
Grizzly Bear - Veckatimest
Phoenix - Wolfgang Amadeus Phoenix
The Yeah Yeah Yeahs - It's Blitz

Contemporary R&B album:

Beyonce - I Am...Sasha Fierce
The Dream - Love vs. Money
Jamie Foxx - Intuition
Keri Hilson - In a Perfect World
Trey Songz - Ready

R&B album:

India Aire - Testimony 2
Whitney Houston - I Look to You
Laura Izibor - Let the Truth Be Told
Maxwell - BLACKsummers'night
Chrisette Michele - Epiphany