Grammy Eligibility Period to End Soon

Because the Grammy Awards are going to be in January this year instead of February, the nominations will be announced in November (instead of December). Consequently, this year's eligibility period has been shortened a month, from October 1, 2008 to August 31, 2009. I imagine this irks record companies who planned major releases for September and weren't able to move them up in time. Whitney Houston managed to do it though, since it just meant bumping it up 1 day.

While it is a wee bit early to start speculating about this year's nominees for album of the year, well, what better thing to think about on this hot late summer evening?

Unlike last year, there isn't a really obvious frontrunner at the moment, but there are some definite contenders:

Frontrunners:

Black Eyed Peas - The E.N.D. For it: It's landed the year's two biggest international pop hits. Against it: "Where Is The Love" aside, no one is taking them very seriously these days.

Beyonce - I Am...Sasha Fierce. For it: It's Beyonce's most consistent album yet, and its managed to deliver quite a few hits. Against it: She's never been nominated for AOTY, although perhaps it's time then.

Whitney Houston - I Look to You. For it: An old Grammy favorite stages a massive comeback--soemthing the Grammy Awards live for. And the early reviews have been quite positive. Against it: So far, it's yet to produce a single that really connects with the public, although it's got a couple months to pull that off.

Taylor Swift - Fearless. For it: Massive country as well as pop crossover hit, which Grammy has a history of rewarding, especially for women (Shania Twain, Dixie Chicks, Carrie Underwood). Against it: Is it too pop, and thus will it be passed over by country voters in favor of something they view as more "pure?"

Bob Dylan - Together Through Life. For it: Grammy has shown it loves Bob Dylan, who awarded him AOTY in 1997 and nominated him in 2001. Plus, it's not a very strong year for rock, so he might edge out some of the other perennial favorites. Against it: The Modern Life was snubbed in 2007, and that was a more popular work (although snubs can sometimes work in your favor).

Other contenders:

U2 - No Line on The Horizon. For it: U2 has been nominated for AOTY four times--more than any other artist in the last 25 years--and won twice. Grammy has lots of love for U2. Against it: Mixed reviews and a lack of major hits could hurt its chances, despite my personal opinion that it is quite good.

Green Day - 21st Century Breakdown. For it: Another magnum opus from the punk band who continues to prove its musical chops. Against it: It may be deemed to similar to its more popular predecessor American Idiot, whom Grammy was quite kind to in 2004 and 2005.

Kanye West - 808s and Heartbreak. For it: Kanye West's other three albums were all nominated. Against it: Unlike those three, this didn't get universal acclaim, and his decision to sing instead of rap caused quite a bit of division.

Bruce Springsteen - Working on a Dream. For it: Another Grammy favorite, and the album got generally good reviews. Against it: It wasn't as well received as Magic, which was 2007's most significant snub in AOTY.

The Dream - Love vs. Money. For it: In a weak year for hip-hop, this may be the R&B album that segment of voters finds most appealing. Against it: It wasn't a major mainstream hit, so it could have trouble finding broad support.

AC/DC - Black Ice. For it: Definitely has that veteran comeback factor that Grammy likes. Against it: The Eagles' veteran comeback album didn't get nominated last year. And something tells me Whitney Houston will be this year's Grammy comeback love story.

Long shots

Guns N Roses - Chinese Democracy. For it: Again, the veteran comeback thing, this time a long, long time in the making. Against it: The album, once it arrived, didn't make very many waves (and generated no major hits).

Pink - Funhouse. For it: Pink has proven herself to be a consistent pop hitmaker over the last 10 years, and this is as good as any of her other albums. Against it: It's not significantly better than her other albums, and thus doesn't stand out as being a nomination-worthy. Like Madonna, she may have to wait for something truly huge to push her into the field.

Diana Krall - Quiet Nights. For it: Diana Krall, a 1999 nominee, makes another lovely jazz album. Against it: She's been making lovely jazz albums for years, and this one, while great, doesn't stand out from the others.

Eminem - Relapse. For it: Again, it's a weak rap year, and Eminem used to be a Grammy favorite, snagging AOTY nominations in 2000 and 2002. Against it: His cache has worn off, and this album received mixed reviews (and I didn't like it at all).

Slumdog Millionaire Soundtrack. For it: A popular and critically acclaimed movie delivered an interesting soundtrack with "Jai Ho" and other A.R. Rahman and M.I.A. tracks. Against it: Soundtracks haven't shown up in AOTY nearly as often this decade as they did in the '90s.

Ineligible

Lady GaGa - The Fame. There seems to be some debate as to whether this counts as a September or October release, but most sources say it was released in September, which makes it ineligible.

Kings of Leon - Only By the Night. This was definitely released in September, however I expect "Use Somebody" to be a strong Record of the Year contender.