Grammy nominees predictions

The Grammy nominees will be announced Thursday, December 6th. The last two years I've tried to predict the nominees in my favorite categories. In 2005 I did pretty good, getting 4 of 5 right for both album and record of the year (didn't get "Feel Good Inc" for record or Paul McCartney for album). Last year I didn't do as well, getting only 2 of the albums and 3 of the records (Dixie Chicks just weren't on my radar screen). Grammy nominations are much harder to predict than Oscars. There are more options and the eligibility period makes it harder to determine whether works were released in time to qualify. Some lessons I've learned:

• Grammy likes legends (Paul McCartney, U2, Bruce Springsteen), except when they dont (no Bob Dylan album nomination last year was a surprise to many)


• The biggest R&B/pop hit of the year is generally a record nominee (Usher's "Yeah!" Mariah's "We Belong Together," Mary's "Be Without You"), while the year's biggest top 40 pop hit is generally not (Maroon 5's "This Love," Kelly's "Since U Been Gone," Natasha Bedingfield's "Unwritten.")


• Grammy doesn't like Timbaland as much as I thought (no album nod for Nelly Furtado's Loose, no record nods for Sexyback or Promiscuous). However, if they feel he was slighted, they may try to rectify.


• The pop categories tend to go more toward adult pop leaning fare than R&B pop.

I also have the advantage of having obtained the lists of albums and songs submitted for each category, so I won't mistakenly predict something that isn't even eligible (it would have been easy this year, as there are some surprising exclusions). Read on.