Thinking About the Grammys

Last week, Entertainment Weekly started speculating about early Oscar contenders this year, so I think it's time to start thinking about what music might be up for the 2009 Grammy Awards. The Grammy eligibility season has just two and a half months left, closing at the end of September. Of course what gets nominated depends largely on the record companies to submit recordings for consideration. When that doesn't happen, embarrassing omissions ensue--Kanye West's "Stronger" missing from Record of the Year, for example. So who might be up this year?

Album of the Year

I think this is the year for Radiohead, perhaps to even win. In Rainbows is among their most critically acclaimed albums and is considered more accessible than many of their recent ones. Both OK Computer and Kid A were nominated. Lil Wayne is a strong contender for The Carter III, as is Alicia Keys for As I Am. Also, Coldplay should be a strong contender this year for Viva La Vida and Death and All His Friends, and they've never been nominated. If a country album finds its way in there, it could be Carrie Underwood's Carnival Ride, which has scored three #1 country hits, or Alison Krauss and Robert Plant's Raising Sand. Not to be underestimated is the Grammy nostalgia factor, which could push The Eagles' Long Road Out of Eden onto the list.

After that my crystal ball gets fuzzier. Sheryl Crow maybe for Detours, although that album hasn't had much impact. Perhaps Death Cab for Cutie or My Morning Jacket, although I see them more in the alternative category. Recent or upcoming releases from Beck, John Mellencamp and The Hold Steady are potential choices too, depending on what sort of impact they have in the next few months. I don't see nods for Usher or Mariah Carey this time (sorry guys), and it's a longshot for R.E.M.'s Accelerate.

Record of the Year

The most obvious contender here is Timbaland and OneRepublic's "Apologize," which should easily make the list. I think "Bleeding Love" by Leona Lewis and "Viva La Vida" by Coldplay should be considered strong contenders too. Sara Bareilles' "Love Song" and Jordin Sparks and Chris Brown's "No Air" are potential nominees. Although it wasn't a big hit, if Alicia Keys is on the albums list, then "Like You'll Never See Me Again" could be here too.

Of course I'd love to see "Mercy" by Duffy make the list, but unfortunately I don't think it will happen since "Mercy" hasn't become a major hit--and last year Amy Winehouse did have a major hit in "Rehab." I'm also not inclined to predict a nomination for Madonna and Justin Timberlake's "4 Minutes," simply because other Timbaland-produced artist collaborations like "Promiscuous," "Give It to Me," and "Sexyback" didn't get it, so why should "4 Minutes?" We still have two and half months for other contenders to emerge here.

Best New Artist

British ladies could crowd this category with the likes of Leona Lewis, Duffy, Estelle and Adele all having varying degrees of potential. OneRepublic should appear here, and if she's eligible, maybe Sara Bareilles. An edgier slate might find Santogold or the Ting Tings here. If Jennifer Hudson can make a splash with her forthcoming debut, maybe she'll appear too. Then of course there's Katy "I Kissed a Girl" Perry to contend with.