Grammy Nominees Predictions

The Grammy Nominations come out a week from today. Last year my predicitons for both album and record of the year were pretty good--4 out of 5 in each category. Here are some predictions for this year:

Album of the Year

Mary J Blige - The Breakthrough
Bob Dylan - Modern Times
Nelly Furtado - Loose
Justin Timberlake - FutureSex/LoveSounds
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Stadium Arcadium

Justin Timberlake and Bob Dylan look like shoo-ins to me, and Mary J Blige looks pretty strong. Red Hot Chili Peppers have never been nominated here, but Stadium Arcadium was universally praised, and "Dani California" was a fairly big hit, so they have a shot. Loose got mixed reviews, but scored some big hits, and last year's Mariah Carey album was seen as a shoo-in, and its reviews weren't as good as Furtado's. The Dixie Chicks seem like a longshot here, but some say it's possible. Beyonce or the Fray could be longshots too. Let's not even consider the High School Musical soundtrack.

Record of the Year

Gnarls Barkley - Crazy
Mary J. Blige - Be Without You
James Blunt - You're Beautiful
Nelly Furtado featuring Timbaland - Promiscuous
Justin Timberlake featuring Timbaland - Sexyback

Gnarls Barkley and Nelly Furtado are very obvious here, and I think Justin Timberlake and Mary J Blige have a good shot here too. It's that 5th spot that's hard to predict. Daniel Powter's "Bad Day" could get it just as easily as James Blunt, but I like James Blunt better, so I'm going with him. Chris Brown's "Run It" seems like a longshot, and Beyonce doesn't have a standout here, unless they decide "Irreplaceable" is qualified--seems like a better choice for next year. I'd love to see Natasha Bedingfield's "Unwritten" here, but given that Kelly Clarkson's "Since U Been Gone" was shut out last year, there's no hope for Natasha.

Female Pop Vocal

Christina Aguilera - Ain't No Other Man
Corinne Bailey Rae - Put Your Records On
Natasha Bedingfield - Unwritten
Kelly Clarkson - Walk Away
KT Tunstall - Black Horse & the Cherry Tree

Althought it's called a "pop" category, adult contemporary always seems to dominate. So expect whatever was big on pop AC to do well on the solo and group pop categories. If they do stray more toward top 40, Rihanna's "SOS" could have a shot, as could Jojo's "Too Little, Too Late" or even Madonna with "Hung Up," although Madonna rarely gets Grammy nominations.

Male Pop Vocal

James Blunt - You're Beautiful
Jack Johnson - Upside Down
Nick Lachey - What's Left of Me
John Mayer - Waiting on the World to Change
Daniel Powter - Bad Day

Rob Thomas didn't have a hit this year, so maybe he won't be nominated, unless "Streetcar Symphony" or "Ever the Same" squeaks in. Don't expect to see Justin Timberlake here, since he had rappers with him, so he'll show up in the collaborations category. Lionel Richie's "I Call It Love" might have a shot, but I'm hoping Nick Lachey can get a nomination, as "What Left of Me" was a classy pop song, and a big hit. James Blunt and Daniel Powter will duke it out for the win though.

Pop Duo or Group with Vocal

The Fray - Over My Head (Cable Car)
Gnarls Barkley - Crazy
The Killers - When You Were Young
Nickelback - Photograph
Red Hot Chili Peppers - Dani California

Unlike the solo categories, this one doesn't necessarily swing AC, so it can be a lot harder to predict. Last year the White Stripes showed up here with "My Doorbell." Was that a US pop hit? Certainly not. There was also a live version of Maroon 5's "This Love" nominated. Who could predict that a 2004 hit would show up again as a "live" nominee? They even won! So my nominees are a real stab in the dark.

Best Pop Collaboration With Vocals

Mary J Blige featuring Bono - One
Nelly Furtado featuring Timbaland - Promiscuous
Shakira featuring Wyclef Jean - Hips Don't Lie
Justin Timberlake featuring Timbaland - Sexyback

Thanks to Timbaland, this is a hot category this year, assuming Grammy goes the way I think they will. I expect this will be Shakira's only real recognition for "Hips Don't Lie,"which will be overshadowed by bigger hit "Promiscious." I have no idea what the fifth nominee will be, so I won't even guess.