Billboard Hot 100 Chart Analysis, 7/1/2006

1. Do I Make You Proud? - Taylor Hicks

American Idol works its chart magic, sending 5th season winner Taylor Hicks to the top of the chart with his debut single, "Do I Make You Proud?" This is the 5th American Idol-generated artist to top the Billboard Hot 100, following winner Kelly Clarkson in 2002 ("A Moment Like This"), runner-up Clay Aiken in 2003 ("This Is The Night"), winner Fantasia in 2004 ("I Believe"), and winner Carrie Underwood in 2005 ("Inside Your Heaven"). Two other artists, 2003's winner Ruben Studdard and 2005's runner-up Bo Bice have had #2 hits: "Flying Without Wings" and "Inside Your Heaven" respectively. Only two American Idol artists have hit the top 10 twice: Clay Aiken, who also hit #4 in 2004 with "Solitaire," and Kelly Clarkson, who's way out in front with six top 10 hits, including last year's #2 smash "Since U Been Gone."

Hicks's single is charting almost solely on sales--as of this writing, "Do I Make You Proud" is #98 on the Mediabase mainstream airplay chart--and I expect it will drop fast next week, as the single has already fallen to #19 on the iTunes sales chart today.

So who will be #1 next week then? Shakira, down at #2 this week, could reclaim the top with "Hips Don't Lie," but my $$$ is on #3...

3. Promiscuous - Nelly Furtado Featuring Timbaland

With Shakira declining and Taylor Hicks certain to drop out of the top 10 with a big thud next week, Canadian-Portuguese singer Nelly Furtado is poised to score her first #1 hit next week. "Promiscuous," despite having spent a month in the top 10, is this weeks greatest Airplay Gainer and it tops the iTunes sales chart today. Furtado's "Maneater" spends a 2nd week at #1 in the UK this week.

6. Crazy - Gnarls Barkley

Speaking of the UK, that country's biggest hit of '06 so far, Gnarls Barkley's "Crazy," crashes into the top 10 this week, up 9 spots. It's also a strong contender to hit #1 soon, as it's airplay is picking up signficantly.

7. Life is a Highway - Rascal Flatts

Country act Rascal Flatts scores their second top 10 hit this year with their remake of Tom Cochrane's "Life is a Highway," not bad for a genre that until recently rarely crossed into the top 20. Fueled by sales--it's this weeks Sales Gainer--"Life is a Highway" climbs 18 spots this week. If it climbs any higher, it could surpass the #6 peak of the original version. Rascal Flatts hit #6 earlier year with "What Hurts the Most."

13. Ain't No Other Man - Christina Aguilera

Christina Aguilera's up 6 spots this week in her 2nd week on the chart. I thought it would be top 10. Hmmm... Perhaps the sales will pick up when she's top 10 in airplay.