Monday, January 23, 2012

Top 40: Will Katy Perry hit #1?

It looks like Katy Perry's "The One That Got Away" will not be hitting #1 on the Billboard Hot 100. The song has fallen below the top 5, and with Adele's "Set Fire to the Rain" sure to claim the top spot next week and hold on for some time, I think Perry's lack of sales will prevent her from topping the chart, even if her airplay is peaking.

At top 40 radio though, she still has a shot. She's been running neck-and-neck with Bruno Mars' "It Will Rain," with both songs waiting for Rihanna's "We Found Love" to finally release its grip from #1. This finally happened this week, allowing Mars to ascend to #1 with Perry close behind at #2. The big question is what happens next week. I see three scenarios:

1) Mars remains at #1. Certainly a possibility if his airplay loss stays minimal, but he's not going to be #1 for long, given that he's hit #1 with a spin loss and several singles in the top 5 now with gains.

2) Flo Rida hits #1. "Good Feeling" is at 12,870 today with a 7-day gain of 548. Another 500 gain will put him at nearly 13,400 next week. If Mars drops 100 spins, Flo could end up at #1.

3) Katy Perry hits #1. This is probably the least likely scenario, but it's still possible. For it to happen, Mars' spin loss has to increase, which it probably will; Flo Rida's spin gain needs to hold or lessen a bit, which is also likely; and Perry's spin gain needs to at least hold for the week and certainly not decrease. Even those I say all those things are likely or possible, it's the fact that all three have to happen that makes this scenario the least likely, in my opinion.

Finally, there is an outside shot that Adele would be #1, but I think "Set Fire to the Rain" is 2 weeks away from #1. Even a 2000 spin gain (500 more than this week) would only put her at 12,200 spins, whereas the #1 contenders are all over 13,000 at present. Never the less, after next week, #1 is all hers.

Source: Accessed January 23, 2012, 8 a.m.

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