Last week I posted what I wanted to win in each category. This list is what I think will win at the Oscars tomorrow night.
Picture: The Departed (It's amazingly tough this year, but the fact that Martin Scorsese is such a sureshot for director gives this just enough push to win. Babel won the Globe for drama, but has its detractors, Little Miss Sunshine has been building buzz, but it's a comedy, and they rarely win--either of those could be spoilers. The other two I think are out. The Queen is well-made--my personal fave--but lacks the grand scale of a best picture, and Letters from Iwo Jima has been surprisingly unsuccessful in its release).
Actor: Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland (Peter O'Toole could upset if voters decide to honor a veteran actor for his body of work).
Actress: Helen Mirren, The Queen (No upsets here. If Helen doesn't win, it would probably be the biggest Oscar surprise of all time).
Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls (Norbit aside, Murphy got a lot of love for his work in Dreamgirls. Alan Arkin could spoil, especially if there's a lot of support for Little Miss Sunshine).
Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls (Among the acting categories, the most upsets happen in the supporting actress category--remember when Anna Paquin beat Winona Ryder? Juliette Binoche beat Lauren Bacall? Marcia Gay Harden beat Kate Hudson? So don't count out darkhouse Adriana Barraza's stunning work in Babel as a possible upset).
Director: Martin Scorsese, The Departed (He's sure to get it. Only possible upset here would be if Clint Eastwood got it as a nod to his brilliant double-play in Flags of Our Fathers and Letters From Iwo Jima. But Clint just won two years ago--it's Martin's turn).
Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine (I'd love to see The Queen spoil this, but if LMS doesn't win best picture, it will at least win this).
Adapted Screenplay: The Departed (Some are saying Borat could spoil, but come on. The Departed was a smart script, save for the finale bloodbath. Little Children would be a nice upset, but I don't think it will happen).
Animated Feature: Cars (Close call here between Cars and Happy Feet. Cars performed well at the box-office and is generally well-liked. It's a Pixar property too, and the studio has already won twice for Finding Nemo and The Incredibles--although those are arguably stronger films than Cars, and Happy Feet was this year's holiday hit, riding the penguin love started last year by March of the Penguins).
Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth (Agonizing choice between Pan's Labyrinth and Dreamgirls. Both are good for different reasons. I personally liked the retro period look of Dreamgirls better, but I expect the academy to want to award Pan's Labyrinth with something other than just best Foreign film, and this is the best place to do it).
Cinematography: Children of Men (Great filming all around, but particularly during the long-take actions scenes. It won the guild award and has a lot of fans. I certainly don't see The Illusionist or The Prestige getting this, and while The Black Dahlia was gorgeous to look at, it was a silly movie, so it won't win. Pan's Labyrinth could spoil, but I doubt it).
Costume Design: Dreamgirls (It's an interesting category this year with two contemporary films vying with three period pieces from different time periods. Dreamgirls gets the edge for not only having cool period outfits, but good performance duds too. Marie Antoinette could upset for its lavish period costuming or The Devil Wears Prada for its effective use of fashion as part of the story).
Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth (Yes, Al Gore will win, but don't expect him to use the platform to announce a presidential bid. C'mon--he's only got a couple of minutes. Nothing else had the impact this did, so no spoiler here).
Documentary Short Subject: The Blood of Yingzhou District (Haven't seen any of them, but most pundits say this will win, with a few saying it will be Two Hands).
Film Editing: Babel (Juggling four different stories into one isn't an easy editing task, and Babel did it effectively, as well as building some cool transitions within stories, like Rinko's euphoric club-hopping. Babel also won the guild award. The Departed could spoil if there's a strong tide of suport for it, and United 93, if enough voters saw it).
Foreign Film: Pan's Labyrinth (It's still a shame Volver isn't here--it's better than the three nominees I've seen, but among those, Pan's Labyrinth was the best by a hair above The Lives of Others, which some are saying could spoil, but I kind of doubt it, given Pan's 6 nominations).
Make-up: Pan's Labyrinth (Those creatures were really cool. Certainly cooler than the been-there done-that aging work in Click, and Hollywood anti-Gibson sentiment should keep Apocalypto from winning anything.)
Original Score: Alexandre Desplat, The Queen (It's the most lovely of the nominees, so it should win. Babel could upset, for it's attempt to score scenes using sounds from the country in which their filmed, but the music just isn't as good).
Original Song: Listen, Dreamgirls (Dreamgirls has three nominations, so surely one of them should win, and Listen is the strongest of the three. It's cool to see a song from a documentary nominated, so if enough people agree, Melissa Etheridge's "I Need to Wake Up" from An Inconvenient Truth could spoil).
Animated Short: The Little Matchgirl (It's about time for a traditional animated short to win, and this Disney work is very deserving--lovely and touching. Pixar's Lifted is supposed to be good--I haven't seen it--but hasn't Pixar won enough? Clever Maestro could be a nice spoiler, but I'd bet on Pixar getting it first).
Live Action Short: West Bank Story (I haven't seen any of these either, but most of the pundits choose this, with Eramos Pocos (One Too Many) as a possible upset).
Sound Editing: Letters from Iwo Jima (The sound effects award should go to one of Eastwood's war films, and since the work in both films is similar, and done by the same people, give it to the film that's also a best picture nominee. Pirates could upset, but let's hope not).
Sound Mixing: Dreamgirls (Ray and Chicago won, establishing a preference for musicals to get this.
Visual Effects: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (The crustacean-inspired baddies should triumph above a sinking ship and the man of steel).
Dreamgirls - 5 awards
The Departed - 3
Pan's Labyrinth - 3
The Queen - 2
No comments:
Post a Comment