Best Picture - Brokeback Mountain
It's a good year for picture nominees, as I liked all 5. The only one I'd be disappointed to see win would be "Good Night, and Good Luck," but only because I didn't like it as much as the others. Two of the films rose above the others--"Munich" and "Brokeback Mountain," and I'm going with the latter as both my prediction and my favorite.
Best Actor - Phillip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
I'd vote for Heath Ledger, but I think Phillip Seymour Hoffman will win, and he's definitely deserving as Truman Capote. The others were also all good, although again, I'd be disappointed if it went to David Strathairn, if only because I felt we never actually learned much about his character's personal side.
Best Actress - Reese Witherspoon, Walk the Line
Again, if I was voting I'd go for Felicity Huffman, whose performance in "Transamerica" was transformative (in more ways than the obvious). It was amazing how unlike her character on Desperate Housewives she was--hence the good acting. But Reese Witherspoon was good too, and I'd be happy to see her win. Judi Dench always makes it look so easy, because she is such a fabulous actress. Keira Knightley was excellent also in "Pride & Prejudice." I'd only be disappointed if Charlize Theron won, because "North Country" was just so-so.
Supporting Actor - George Clooney, Syriana
This is a tough category as there are many fine performances. I'd vote for Jake Gyllenhaal, but I also really liked Matt Dillon in "Crash." William Hurt was great, but maybe too hammy and he was only in 1 scene. Paul Giamatti was fine, but he didn't wow me in "Cinderella Man." I think Hollywood will honor Clooney more for being Clooney than for being great in "Syriana."
Supporting Actress - Amy Adams, Junebug
I'm gunning for an upset here. Amy Adams was fantastic in "Junebug," and this category has a history of honoring newcomers and surprising roles. Let's hope that happens this year, otherwise, I felt like the nominees were kind of boring. Michelle Williams was great in "Brokeback Mountain," and I'd probably vote for her, but I didn't think she was any more deserving than Anne Hathaway, who wasn't nominated. Also, Catherine Keener is a great actress, but she really didn't have much to do in "Capote," so I feel like her nomination is kind of boring. Ditto for Rachel Weisz, who I thought was fine but not exceptional in "The Constant Gardener," which I feel is getting more end of year praise than it deserves. If were up to me, I'd kick out Weisz, Keener, and maybe even Frances McDormand (who was good in "North Country," but again, I found the movie underwhelming) and replace them with Maria Bello (Mesmerizing in "A History of Violence"), Hathaway, and maybe even Thandie Newton from "Crash."
Director - Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
In a rare but what makes sense move, the 5 nominated directors perfectly match the 5 nominated films. Ang Lee will win, even if "Brokeback Mountain" doesn't win best picture, although that's unlikely. I love that Lee has demonstrated he can skillfully execute romantic comedy, British costume drama, family melodrama, fantasy/martial arts, and now gay western films (we'll let his forray into action superhero films slide).
Adapted Screenplay - Brokeback Mountain
"Brokeback Mountain" is a 50-page short story by Annie Proulx that originally appeared in a short story. On the back of that thin source material, the screenwriters have expanded the story--adding layers and characters without abandonning its original spirit. Marvellous.
Original Screenplay - Crash
If I was voting, I'd probably cast my lot with "Match Point," but "Crash" was great too and covered a lot of issues and characters effectively. It will win, particularly because it won't win best picture, even though it's considered the dark horse there.
Animated Feature - Wallace & Grommit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit
I haven't seen "Howl's Moving Castle," and "Tim Burton's Corpse Bride" was cute, but nothing special. "Wallace & Gr0mmit" was clever, fun, and well-done. It will win deservingly.
Art Direction - Memoirs of a Geisha
"Memoirs of a Geisha" is the one I haven't seen, but from what I've heard (and from pictures) it looks to be the most lushly realized--a colorful palette of historic detail. Were I voting though, I'd go with "Pride & Prejudice," which was lovely, but realistic in portraying the lifestyles of multiple classes of people.
Cinematography - Brokeback Mountain
"Brokeback Mountain" gets a lot of attention here for the lovely scenery, but the more interesting cinematographic detail was the clever shot compositions that juxtaposed reality and fantasy--sometimes even in the same shot (the last one, for example, with the Brokeback Mountain postcard on the door and the flat, dull Wyoming terrain out the window). It should win, and it's my pick.
Costume Design - Memoirs of a Geisha
Since it's closely linked to Art Direction, expect "Geisha" to dominate here too, although again, since I haven't seen it, I'd probably vote for "Pride & Prejudice." Any why is "Walk the Line" nominated? Johnny Cash just wore black.
Documentary Feature - March of the Penguins
Haven't seen any here I'm afraid (although "Murderball's" in my Tivo queue and "Penguins" is in my Netflix stack). I expect the most popular film, "March of the Penguins" to get the prize.
Documentary Short - The Death of Kevin Carter
I have no clue and have not seen any, so I'll go with EW's choice here. Sounds interesting.
Film Editing - Crash
"Crash" effectively wove together multiple story lines and characters and completely deserves to win here. Were I voting, I'd probably still vote for "Crash," even though I'd be tempted to vote for "Munich," since it was my 2nd-favorite movie of the year, and I'm afraid it's not going to win any Oscars.
Foreign Film - Paradise Now
EW predicts "Tsotsi," but I'm going with "Paradise Now." I didn't see any of these films, but I saw this film's trailer a lot, and it looked intriguing.
Make-Up - Star Wars Episode III - Revenge of the Sith
Star Wars won 7 Oscars, Empire Strikes Back 2, and Return of the Jedi 1. The Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones won none however, and this is the only chance to award the technical wizardry of the Star Wars prequel trilogy. Regardless of what you thought of the stories and characters, the artistry and special effects of the films were extraordinary, and the makeup required to transform Anakin Skywalker into Darth Vader--lava burns and severed limbs--was well done.
Original Score - Brokeback Mountain
John Williams is a perennial favorite (he's been nominated 45 times and won for such instantly recognizable scores as "Schindler's List," "E.T.," "Star Wars," and "Jaws"). He may win for "Memoirs of a Geisha," but the stark guitar-based score for "Brokeback Mountain" haunted me for weeks afterward as much as the story did. Although I also loved the music for "Pride & Prejudice," I'm sticking with "Brokeback."
Original Song - "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp," Hustle & Flow
The pundits all over the place here. The Academy decided to nominated only 3 songs, but that doesn't make predicting the winner any easier. EW is going with "In The Deep" from Crash, but I don't remember that song. Others suspect Dolly Parton will be recognized for Transamerica's "Travellin' Thru," but the song doesn't really do much for me. "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" was clever, memorable, and central to Hustle & Flow's story arc. It should win, and the fact that "Lose Yourself" won 3 years ago kills that argument that the Academy is too conservative to honor it.
Short Film (Animated) - 9
I've only seen "Badgered," and it's really cute and funny, but I suspects its traditional animation will get beaten out by computer animation, either by the perrennial winner animation powerhouse Pixar ("One Man Band") or more likely the edgy "9."
Short Film (Live) - Ausreisser (The Runaway)
iTunes has these for sale, and they are surprisingly good. "Our Time is Up" is quite funny, but my favorite has to be "Ausreisser (The Runaway)" which is funny, sinister, and touching (in that order).
Sound (Mixing) - Walk the Line
Traditionally, it seemed this award was going to big-budget blockbuster types, but last year it went to "Ray," so this year, perhaps "Walk the Line" has an advantage.
Sound (Editing) - King Kong
Even more so, this award is about special effects, so expect "King Kong," the year-end effects extrvaganza with Peter Jackson cred to take it.
Visual Effects - King Kong
Again, it should go to Kong. The award are given out tomorrow night. Enjoy!
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